Flood risk mapping and crop-water loss modeling using water footprint analysis in agricultural watershed, northern Iran
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Flood risk mapping and crop‑water loss modeling using water footprint analysis in agricultural watershed, northern Iran Maziar Mohammadi1 · Hamid Darabi2 · Fahimeh Mirchooli1 · Alireza Bakhshaee3 · Ali Torabi Haghighi2 Received: 17 May 2020 / Accepted: 17 October 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Spatial information on flood risk and flood-related crop losses is important in flood mitigation and risk management in agricultural watersheds. In this study, loss of water bound in agricultural products following damage by flooding was calculated using water footprint and agricultural statistics, using the Talar watershed, northern Iran, as a case. The main conditioning factors on flood risk (flow accumulation, slope, land use, rainfall intensity, geology, and elevation) were rated and combined in GIS, and a flood risk map classified into five risk classes (very low to very high) was created. Using average crop yield per hectare, the amount of rice and wheat products under flood risk was calculated for the watershed. Finally, the spatial relationships between agricultural land uses (rice and wheat) and flood risk areas were evaluated using geographically weighted regression (GWR) in terms of local R2 at sub-watershed scale. The results showed that elevation was the most critical factor for flood risk. GWR results indicated that local R2 between rice farms and flood risk decreased gradually from north to south in the watershed, while no pattern was detected for wheat farms. Potential production of rice and wheat in very high flood risk zones was estimated to be 7972 and 18,860 tons, on an area of 822 ha and 7218 ha, respectively. Loss of these crops to flooding meant that approximately 34.04 and 12.10 million m 3 water used for production of wheat and rice, respectively, were lost. These findings can help managers, policymakers, and watershed stakeholders achieve better crop management and flood damage reduction. Keywords Flood damages · Water footprint · Crop water loss · Flood risk management · GIS · Talar watershed
* Ali Torabi Haghighi [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Flooding is one of the most devastating and costly natural hazards. It has severe socioeconomic and environmental consequences, including destroying farmland, reducing crop yield, and causing regional freshwater shortages (Mind’je et al. 2019). Flooding can only occur not only in lowland areas but also in mountainous environments. Analysis of flooding and its relationships with explanatory variables can help water managers identify the most effective variable in flooding (Hosseini et al. 2020). Therefore, identification of floodprone areas and of the most influential conditioning factors is an essential tool in mitigating the effects of flooding (Khosravi et al. 2016). Various models have been developed to estimate potential flood risk areas and simulate flow (Darabi et al. 2019; Rahmati et al. 2019). However, some of these
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