Forecasting COVID-19 outbreak progression using hybrid polynomial-Bayesian ridge regression model
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Forecasting COVID-19 outbreak progression using hybrid polynomial-Bayesian ridge regression model Mohd Saqib 1 Accepted: 11 September 2020 # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract In 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2) Coronavirus, unforeseen pandemic put humanity at big risk and health professionals are facing several kinds of problem due to rapid growth of confirmed cases. That is why some prediction methods are required to estimate the magnitude of infected cases and masses of studies on distinct methods of forecasting are represented so far. In this study, we proposed a hybrid machine learning model that is not only predicted with good accuracy but also takes care of uncertainty of predictions. The model is formulated using Bayesian Ridge Regression hybridized with an n-degree Polynomial and uses probabilistic distribution to estimate the value of the dependent variable instead of using traditional methods. This is a completely mathematical model in which we have successfully incorporated with prior knowledge and posterior distribution enables us to incorporate more upcoming data without storing previous data. Also, L2 (Ridge) Regularization is used to overcome the problem of overfitting. To justify our results, we have presented case studies of three countries, −the United States, Italy, and Spain. In each of the cases, we fitted the model and estimate the number of possible causes for the upcoming weeks. Our forecast in this study is based on the public datasets provided by John Hopkins University available until 11th May 2020. We are concluding with further evolution and scope of the proposed model. Keywords COVID-19 pandemic . Bayesian ridge regression . Prediction . Mathematical modeling
1 Introduction In late December 2019, a group of patients was come up with an unknown Etiology to the hospitals having symptoms of pneumonia. Later on, the first case of novel coronavirus was reported in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province in Central China [1]. After taking a basic understanding of the virus, medical experts have given a name as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the name of the disease caused by this virus is coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) [2]. The cases of COVID-19 pandemic are growing rapidly. Till 30th April 2020, we have 3,251,587 confirmed and 229,832 death cases throughout the world due to this hazardous pandemic, COVID-19. In India, the first laboratory-confirmed case of COVID-19 was reported from Kerala on 30th January 2020 and as of 30th
* Mohd Saqib [email protected] 1
Mathematic and Computing Department, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India
April 2020, a total of 33,931 cases and 943 deaths were reported in India [3]. To tackle this ongoing pandemic and such events in the future where the lives of millions of people are at high risk, we need a strong health care system and technology that w
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