Forecasting Model for IPTV Service in Korea Using Bootstrap Ridge Regression Analysis
The telecom firms in Korea are taking new step to prepare for the next generation of convergence services, IPTV. In this paper we described our analysis on the effective method for demand forecasting about IPTV broadcasting. We have tried according to 3 t
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Abstract. The telecom firms in Korea are taking new step to prepare for the next generation of convergence services, IPTV. In this paper we described our analysis on the effective method for demand forecasting about IPTV broadcasting. We have tried according to 3 types of scenarios based on some aspects of IPTV potential market and made a comparison among the results. The forecasting method used in this paper is the multi generation substitution model with bootstrap ridge regression analysis.
1 Introduction The advent of Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), which is a method of distributing television contents over IP [1], will change individual daily life dramatically by offering a glittering array of new services not available under the traditional broadcasting technologies. IPTV is a packet-based real-time broadcasting system used to deliver various video information and on-demand digital contents over the Web and is regarded as the new generation broadcasting system. In Korea, many telecom firms recognize and expect the great potential effect of IPTV. However, there exist skeptical predictions because there are so many uncertain factors with respect to the purchasing behavior of customers under the present telecom markets’ environment. It makes marketers cannot assert that IPTV will result in substantial revenue from this new business. So, it is essential to forecast the demand of IPTV by analyzing the market more systematically and considering more varied and robust scenarios which might happen in these markets. This paper describes the analysis of effective methods for demand forecasting which we used, respectively, according to 3 types of scenarios based on some aspects of IPTV’s potential market. We performed comparisons with the results of each of the methods with the others. The findings of the analysis in this paper can help firms become ready to deploy IPTV, making their strategic decision with more certainly. The results of this paper might be applied with fundamental data in order to establish the communication broadcasting convergence policy of the government. *
Corresponding author.
J.-W. Park, T.-G. Kim, and Y.-B. Kim (Eds.): AsiaSim 2007, CCIS 5, pp. 95–102, 2007. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007
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2 Forecasting Potential IPTV Market 2.1 Forecasting Method for Potential IPTV Broadcasting Market In the potential market, there are only a few of the existing services that may be substituted with IPTV. In the sense of understanding the development of broadcasting technology, CATV may be called the first generation, the next following generation is satellite TV, and IPTV as third generation technology. CATV has variety of channels that traditional ground wave TV does not have. Satellite TV has nationwide broadcasting network. However, both services are local broadcasting and single direction services. The IPTV appearance may change a total paradigm. Service providers are actively conducting trials of IPTV based services. So, a multi-generation diffusion model is applicab
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