Forecasting the carbon dioxide emissions in 53 countries and regions using a non-equigap grey model
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Forecasting the carbon dioxide emissions in 53 countries and regions using a non-equigap grey model Zhicun Xu 1 & Lianyi Liu 1 & Lifeng Wu 1 Received: 26 August 2020 / Accepted: 10 November 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Non-equigap GM(1,1) model with conformable fractional accumulation (CFNGM(1,1)) is proposed to analyze the relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Two cases are used to prove the validity of the model. In this article, energy consumption is used as input and carbon dioxide emissions are used as output. Carbon dioxide emissions of 53 countries and regions in North America, South America, Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific are predicted. The forecast results show that the carbon dioxide emissions of 30 countries and regions have risen to varying degrees. The top three countries with carbon dioxide emissions in the next three years are China, the USA, and India. More attention should be paid to the carbon dioxide emissions of China. Keywords Energy consumption . Carbon dioxide emissions . Conformable fractional accumulation operator . Non-equigap grey model
Introduction Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas that causes global warming, and the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum will cause a large amount of carbon dioxide emissions. In the latest research, a large number of scholars have studied various energy issues, such as the industrial solar energy (Wang et al. 2020), clean energy (Wang 2015), coal (Shou et al. 2020), renewable and hydro energy (Utkucan Sahin 2020), and natural gas (Wang and Li 2020). Energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions are closely related, so scholars will pay attention to energy and carbon emissions at the same time. Pao et al. (2012) not only studied energy consumption, they also predicted carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. There are also some scholars specializing in the study of carbon dioxide emissions in certain regions, such as the carbon dioxide emissions of the BRICS and OECD countries (Wu et al. 2020; Saidi and Omri
Responsible editor: Marcus Schulz * Lifeng Wu [email protected] 1
School of Management Engineering and Business, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
2020). The above scholars have done a lot of research, but there are some shortcomings. They both studied energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions separately, and failed to establish a connection between them. The model in this paper makes up for this deficiency. Carbon dioxide emissions are affected by many factors. Therefore, scholars have studied carbon dioxide emissions from different perspectives. For example, Lin and Agyeman (2020) used energy-related carbon dioxide emission dynamics to assess low-carbon development in sub-Saharan Africa. Tobelmann and Wendler (2020) study the impact of environmental innovation on carbon dioxide emissions. Li et al. (2019) used panel data to analyze the impact o
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