Fundamental Advances in Transparent Conducting Oxides
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Mat. Res. Soc. Symp. Proc. Vol. 623 © 2000 Materials Research Society
solar gain in hot climates (thus minimizing air-conditioning) and/or to minimize heat-loss from buildings in cold climates. Part of their development depends on reducing the time taken to change state from transmissive to absorptive, which depends, to some extent, on reducing the sheet resistance of the TCO. The market, in terms of the area of coated glass required annually (or in financial terms), for each of these applications is large now but has the potential to increase greatly. The efficiency of thin-film photovoltaic modules is, optimistically, 10%. The peak annual insolation is 1 k watt M-.2 At present, the U.S. has approximately 700 G watts of installed electricity generating capacity.3 For photovoltaics to be of national significance, one may speculate that their production rate must be at least I -G watt annually and, based on these estimates, at least 4 square miles of photovoltaic panels must be manufactured annually. Production rates of this magnitude are not out of the question. The market for photovoltaics is increasing annually at approximately 25% and it is expected that this will persist for many years to come. 4 If thin-film photovoltaics command an increasing share of the market, as is expected, and given that the three leading thinfilm candidates all require a TCO in their construction, we may confidently predict that the volume of TCO-coated glass will increase substantially. The glass-coatings industry manufactures at least 16 square miles per annum, although not all of this involves a TCO coating.5 However, American Float Glass manufactures approximately 2 square miles of tin oxide-coated glass annually.6 Not all of this is for photovoltaics but the point is that the manufacturing capacity does exist. Indeed, photovoltaics are seen as one of the major future product lines by the glass industry. If the industry meets the cost-target of I $ watt-', set by the Department of Energy, then the equivalent revenue will be $lBn per annum based on our estimate of 1 G watt per annum.4 However, it appears likely that this will grow substantially when, and if, thin-film photovoltaics become significant. The market for flat-panel displays is already large and is also likely to grow to multiple billions of dollars per annum. Estimates of the future market for flat-panel displays are also impressive. Predictions suggest that the existing market size is approximately $18 Bn per year, and this is expected to increase to $22 Bn per year by 2002 and to $27 Bn per year by 2005.' Higher performance TCOs with lower sheet resistance and superior optical properties will accelerate the achievement of these markets in two ways. Firstly, much of the power consumed by laptop computers is due to the screen. Reducing the sheet resistance would therefore provide a longer battery lifetime. Secondly, the realization of large flat-screen televisions depends on reducing the sheet resistance of the TCOs. Similar comments may be made about energy conserving
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