Future changes in precipitation extremes during northeast monsoon over south peninsular India
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Future changes in precipitation extremes during northeast monsoon over south peninsular India K. Koteswara Rao 1
&
Ashwini Kulkarni 1 & Savita Patwardhan 1 & B. Vinodh Kumar 2 & T. V. Lakshmi Kumar 3
Received: 3 February 2020 / Accepted: 30 June 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract It is well recognized that the global climate has been warming and it can have adverse regional impacts in the future. Besides producing changes in mean climate, global warming can also substantially alters the weather and climate extremes. Considering the impact of weather extremes on agriculture as well as water resource management in an agrarian country like India, present study aims to characterize future changes in precipitation extremes in northeast monsoon season (October–November– December) over south peninsular India based on statistically downscaled high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) datasets. This NEX-GDDP dataset simulates the mean rainfall reasonably well. There may be an increase in precipitation in near (5% under RCP 4.5 and 11% under RCP 8.5) and far future (21% and 38% under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively). Future climate projections indicate that both the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes in most parts of the south peninsular India may increase under both the warming scenarios during northeast monsoon season.
1 Introduction Global warming has significant impacts on the changes in extreme weather and climate events. These changes are reported to have impact on the social and economic sectors of the society (IPCC 2013). Numerous studies highlighted the increase of precipitation extremes with high regional variations across the globe (Alexander et al. 2006; Min et al. 2011; Trenberth 2011; Westra et al. 2013; Donat et al. 2016). However, the projections of the precipitation extremes involve uncertainties due to the complex nature of earth’s climate system which cannot be represented adequately in the regional/global climate models (Chen et al. 2014; Knutti 2008; Jiang et al. 2016; Zhou and Chen 2015). Warmer climate conditions enhance the capacity of
* K. Koteswara Rao [email protected] 1
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune 411008, India
2
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela 769008, India
3
Atmospheric Science Research Laboratory, SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Kattankulathur 603203, India
atmosphere to hold more water vapor which is the driving force for precipitation extremes (Allen and Ingram 2002; Allan and Soden 2008). It is also to be noted that the precipitation extremes not only depend on the water vapor changes but also on the environmental changes (O’Gorman and Schneider 2009). The recent decade has witnessed a high number of heavy precipitation events such as floods in different parts of the world (WMO 2011; Coumou and Rahmstorf 2012). Though there is a decrement in annual preci
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