Future Changes in Water Availability Due to Climate Change Projections for Huong Basin, Vietnam
- PDF / 1,807,319 Bytes
- 22 Pages / 439.37 x 666.142 pts Page_size
- 27 Downloads / 204 Views
Future Changes in Water Availability Due to Climate Change Projections for Huong Basin, Vietnam Quan V. Dau 1 & Kittiwet Kuntiyawichai 2 & Adebayo J. Adeloye 1 Received: 27 March 2020 / Accepted: 13 October 2020/ # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The main aim of this study is to assess the water availability in the Huong River
Basin, Central Vietnam under the impacts of climate and population changes. Regarding the climate change impacts assessment, two options were adopted to produce fine scale climate projections over the river basin. First, coarse scale projections of rainfall and temperature by the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) were downscaled statistically using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM). The second approach used bias-corrected dynamically downscaled output of HadGEM3-RA Regional Climate Model (RCM). The HEC-HMS hydrologic model was used for simulating the rainfallrunoff response in association with climate forcing. Finally, water availability was evaluated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model by taking into account plausible population changes within the river basin. The results showed that the future temperature will rise by 0.2 to 3.5 °C and annual rainfall will increase by 1 to 8%. Water shortages in 2080s were non-existent if population projections were ignored, which is to be expected given the projected increase in rainfall. When projected population increases were considered, however, there were unmet urban water demands in districts that were previously self-sufficient. However, the shortages remain very small relative to the gross domestic demand that they give no cause for alarm. The big message here is that the hydrology of the Huong River Basin in Vietnam will cope with the most severe projected climate to meet its agricultural and domestic water supply obligations well into the future. Highlights
• Temperature and rainfall are both projected to rise in the Huong River Basin. • Simulated water shortage was small for the projected climate. • Population changes accentuated water scarcity within the Basin.
* Adebayo J. Adeloye [email protected]
1
Institute for Infrastructure and Environment, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, UK
2
Faculty of Engineering, Khon Kaen University, Khon Kaen 40002, Thailand
Dau Q.V. et al.
Keywords Climate change . Water availability . Water shortage . GCM/RCM . Downscaling technique
1 Introduction Adequate water and sanitation for all is one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets that the Vietnamese government is fully committed for national development (MPI 2018). With mean annual rainfall of 1960 mm and 2360 rivers, Vietnam can be considered rich in surface water resources in terms of runoff capacity to cater for its water supply and other needs (Nguyen-Tien et al. 2018; Nguyen et al. 2020). The estimated total annual surface water resources in the country is 840 × 109 m3 (Sagris et al. 2017); however, much of this water (around 524 × 109 m3) derives from the runoff from the neighb
Data Loading...
