Future surface temperature changes for the Iberian Peninsula according to EURO-CORDEX climate projections
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Future surface temperature changes for the Iberian Peninsula according to EURO‑CORDEX climate projections D. Carvalho1 · S. Cardoso Pereira1 · A. Rocha1 Received: 25 June 2020 / Accepted: 1 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Future changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperature in the Iberian Peninsula were investigated using biascorrected EURO-CORDEX climate projections. The results show that the future temperatures are projected to substantially increase in all the Iberian Peninsula, particularly towards the end of the century at the south-central region. Mean and maximum temperatures are projected to increase around 2 °C (4 °C) for the 2046–2065 (2081–2100) period, with much higher frequencies of days above 20 (mean temperature) and 30 °C (maximum temperature). However, much higher increases are projected in the south of Spain, Cantabrian and Pyrinees mountain ranges, while lower ones are projected for the Atlantic coastal areas. In the south-central part of the Iberian Peninsula, hot days (mean temperature > 30 °C) are projected to increase 20–35 days/year (40–80 days/year) for the period 2046–2065 (2081–2100), while very hot days (maximum temperature > 40 °C) are projected to increase 10–25 days/year (10–50 days/year) for the period 2046–2065 (2081–2100). These results show a clear tendency, associated with a high confidence, in a significant increase of the surface temperatures and in the frequency of high temperature episodes in the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula, which can have severe impacts on the population, environment and economy. The currently hottest areas located in south-central Iberian Peninsula are also the ones with the highest projected temperature increases, which will significantly exacerbate the temperature stress in these areas. Keywords Climate change · Global warming · Iberian Peninsula · Spain · Portugal · EURO-CORDEX
1 Introduction The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), offered conclusive evidences of the global warming and of the human influence on it (IPCC AR5 2013). A following IPCC report (IPCC 2014) stated that the global mean temperatures have increased on average by 0.85 °C between 1880 and 2012, and the last 30 year period was likely the warmest of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, with each decade warmer than the preceding. Several recent studies reported the increase of the global mean temperatures (e.g., Fischer and Knutti 2015; Fischer and Schär 2010; IPCC 2018; Vogel et al. 2019) and provided evidence of
* D. Carvalho [email protected] 1
CESAM‑Department of Physics, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810‑193 Aveiro, Portugal
increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as extreme temperatures (Russo et al. 2015). The Iberian Peninsula is located at the south-westernmost tip of Europe, surrounded by the Atlantic ocean to the north and west, and by the Mediterranean sea to the south and
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