Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Futures of European welfare models and policies: seeking actual research questions, and new problem-solving arsenal for European welfare states Andres Viia 1 & Anu Toots 1 & Barbara Černič Mali 2 & Bostjan Kerbler 2 & Erik F. Øverland 3 & Erik Terk 1 & Külliki Tafel-Viia 1 & Jari Kaivo-oja 4 & Joe Finnerty 5 & Mairéad Considine 5 & Richard Sendi 2 & Silja Lassur 1
Received: 26 November 2015 / Accepted: 27 November 2015 # The Author(s) 2016. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Abstract The key research question is to discuss and elaborate the potential value added that futures studies could provide for European citizens and political, social and economic institutions. In the article the problems of European welfare policy issues are theoretically described and analysed. In the article broader framework to understand key policy issues of European welfare policy challenges are defined. A general analysis and generic model for European welfare policy is presented. The Authors also present futures oriented methodological approach to analyse and solve new challenges of European welfare policy problems. Key contributions of this article are: (1) Analysis of theoretical basis for construction of welfare models in future environments, (2) the relationship between research questions and topics in welfare policy planning and management, (3) the analysis of the relationship between futures oriented research questions, methodological stages and outcomes in the field of European welfare policy and (4) the concrete methodological proposal how futures research methodology can help to solve future puzzles of European welfare policy.
* Erik F. Øverland [email protected]
1
School of Social Sciences, Tallinn University (Estonian Institute for Futures Studies), Tallinn, Estonia
2
Urban Planning Institute of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia
3
Institut Futur, Free University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
4
Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
5
University College Cork, Cork, Ireland
Keywords European welfare state . European Union . Welfare model . Futures orientation . European framework of welfare policy . Futures studies research methodology . Perspectivist scenario building . Welfare policy analysis . Trend analysis . Change management . European Union . EU28 countries
Introduction Last years have not been very easy ones for European Union and its member states. Political pressures have been strong among key policy-makers of European key institutions, e.g., European Parliament, European Commission and European Central Bank. An obvious conclusion from the discussions is that the European welfare policy framework is also under pressure. Futures perspectives are not so clear in European welfare policies because of (1) unemployment problems, (2) globalisation challenges, (3) migration policy and (4) aging population issues among many other challenging political issues. The agenda of European welfare p
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