Geological Risk Uncertainty in Oil Exploration
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l 1991, an energy modeling conclave was held at Stanford University to provide assessments of the shortfall expected in the US supply of total hydrocarbon liquids (crude oil plus natural gas liquids) through the year 2000. Different models resulted in different outputs under identical price conditions has the range of estimates from prominent forecasters, and the troubling inconsistency of those estimates with the then observed behavior, lead to skepticism that the state of oil supply has improved was wrong as proved later !! Currently (2016-17) AVO model(s); high frequency models have started substantially improving both findings ; zeroing exploratory drilling; pinpointing developmental drill sites and increased production minimizing overall cost. Indeed, the basic problem of prediction is there are many unknown factors involved in supply and demand precisely that some assumptions must be made on unknown factors of supply and demand and, in addition, the assumptions being made are now being incorporated there appropriately within for treating processes considered relevant to the predictions to be made. Here both science; technology and economy are intricately embedded. Results The purpose should be to provide quantitative operational procedures to show how to perform the tasks mentioned, and to show how to use the results in strategic and economic senses, with latitudes being made for the uncertainties intrinsic to basin model calculations. An integrated exploration assessment is very much needed which would underpin in varied degrees to which all available information to obtain robust measures scientifically. Discussion In exploration economic models, many parameters occur, either alone or in combination with other parameters, and each of the parameters has its own uncertainty. Presumably this aspect of models is part of the reason for the range of results from the Stanford experiment. We need to have available practical procedures for estimating the combined effects of uncertainty of parameters on an exploration project. However, the point is that there could be 10-100 estimates of future shortfall or abundance made with different models are now worldwide available but with trade secrets and implicit embargos available. And the tendency of west to pass on second rate models at cheaper prices which at times are not conducive to our environment. First rate models are still costly. Hence in India DGH (HELP), GEOPIC, KDMPIPE, NGRI have to work continuously to keep abreast which they are in in fact but we have short comings of infrastructure; problems in exchanges of scientists with abroad and infrastructure as well. With concerted approach we would certainly lbe able to use all of the model results (so that systematic bias, conscious or unconscious, does not affect an outcome and divest geology of subsurface). There cannot be one model for all; and a comprehension understanding of and use of models in well location release (the ultimate point) in order to provide some quantitative measure of likely shortfall, together
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