Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018
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Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018 Jonathan Chambers 1 Received: 11 September 2019 / Accepted: 29 September 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
Heatwaves have become more frequent and intense due to anthropogenic global warming and have serious and potentially life-threatening impacts on human health, particularly for people over 65 years old. While a range of studies examine heatwave exposures, few cover the whole globe and very few cover key areas in Africa, South America, and East Asia. By using global gridded climate reanalysis, population, and demographic data, this work analyses trends in change in exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves, providing global and per-country aggregate statistics. The difference between the global mean of heatwave indexes and the mean weighted by vulnerable population found that these populations are experiencing up to five times the number of heatwave days relative to the global average. The total exposures, measured in person-days of heatwave, highlight the combined effect of increased heatwaves and aging populations. In China and India, heatwave exposure increased by an average of 508 million person-days per year in the last decade. Mapping of changes per country highlighted significant exposure increases, particularly in the Middle East and in South East Asia. Major disparities were found between the heatwave exposures, country income group, and country health system capacity, thus highlighting the significant inequalities in global warming impacts and response capacities with respect to health across countries. It is therefore of prime importance that health development and response are coordinated with climate change mitigation and adaptation work. Keywords Global warming . Health . Heatwaves . Indicators
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002884-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Jonathan Chambers [email protected]
1
Chair for Energy Efficiency, Institute for Environmental Sciences and Forel Institute, University of Geneva, Boulevard Carl-Vogt 66, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Anthropogenic global warming is driving an observed increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of global heatwaves and warm spells, with these trends projected to continue in the future (IPCC 2013a; Perkins-Kirkpatrick and Gibson 2017; Perkins et al. 2012). The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified climate change as a global risk factor for health (WHO 2009), with heatwaves presenting a particularly acute risk. Furthermore, vulnerability to heatwaves is not uniform—certain age groups are more susceptible to ill effects, while other factors including prevalence of certain diseases, condition of infrastructure, and health system status all contribute to the overall risk factor (Watts et al. 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016).
1.1 Health impacts of heatwaves Heatwaves ha
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