Heterogeneity in the relationship between carbon emission performance and urbanization: evidence from China

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Heterogeneity in the relationship between carbon emission performance and urbanization: evidence from China Zhibo Zhao 1 & Tian Yuan 1 & Xunpeng Shi 2,3,4 & Lingdi Zhao 1,5 Received: 25 June 2019 / Accepted: 2 June 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020

Abstract

Global change caused by carbon emissions alone has become a common challenge for all countries. However, current debates about urbanization and carbon emissions generally do not take into account the heterogeneities in urbanization and economic development levels. The goal of this study is to revisit the urbanization– emissions nexus by considering such heterogeneities in the Chinese context. The results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in the total factor carbon emission performance index across provinces. Specifically, the relationship between carbon emission performance and urbanization reflects a U-shaped curve. Urbanization is found to have a stronger inhibiting effect on carbon emission performance when economic development levels improve. The results suggest that tailoring policies to each region’s conditions, promoting investments in energysaving and emissions-reducing technologies, and improving the use of public transportation could be mitigation strategies for global change that lead to lowcarbon urbanization. Keywords Urbanization heterogeneity . Economic developmentheterogeneity . Carbon emission performance . Non-radical direction function . Threshold effect

* Lingdi Zhao [email protected]

1

School of Economics, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

2

Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney 2007, Australia

3

School of Low Carbon Economics & Center of Hubei Cooperative Innovation for Emissions Trading System, Hubei University of Economics, Wuhan 430205, China

4

Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119620, Singapore

5

Institute of Marine Development of OUC, Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences at Universities, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266100, China

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

1 Introduction Amid the development of a globalized economy, global change has gradually become a new challenge facing all countries. Worldwide carbon mitigation efforts have been launched through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol (Kyoto Protocol) (UNFCCC 1998) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France (Paris Agreement) (UNFCCC 2015). Although carbon emissions are generally believed to relate closely to urbanization, the exact nature of this relationship has been debated. The objective of this study is to contribute to this discussion by analyzing the urbanization–carbon emissions relationship considering heterogeneity in urbanization and economic development levels in China. We examine specifically how this relationship differs depending on each area’s urbanization stage and economic development level. We beli