Heuristics and Evidences Decision (HeED) Making: a Case Study in a Systemic Model for Transforming Decision Making from
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Heuristics and Evidences Decision (HeED) Making: a Case Study in a Systemic Model for Transforming Decision Making from Heuristics-Based to Evidenced-Based Tariq Mahadeen 1 & Kostas Galanakis 1 & Elpida Samara 2 & Pavlos Kilintzis 3 Received: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 24 August 2020/ # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Studies refer to Heuristics and Evidences Decision Making approaches in a comparative manner; however, it is identified that these two approaches are inseparable and are applied in parallel. The objective of this paper is to provide a qualitative analysis of a systems thinking framework that defines a transition path from either a heuristic dominated or evidence-based dominated decisionmaking approach to a balanced one. The aims are to demonstrate the stages of change and prepare managers and executives for the resistance that will be evident during the transition. We do not claim that this is the only path of change; however, it provides a structured model that can be repeated under similar context. We use abductive reasoning in order to make logical inferences and construct the frameworkâs theory based on a case study company, and then system dynamics that help us proceed to the modeling approach of this framework. The holistic modeling approach reveals the need to base decision making in both evidence and heuristics. Furthermore, it demonstrates actions to manage resistance and to make this system a self-regulated and continuous decision-making tool. Keywords Heuristics . Evidence-based decision making . Change process . Resistance to
change . System dynamics modeling
* Pavlos Kilintzis [email protected]
1
Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University, 50 Shakespeare Street, Nottingham NG1 4QU, UK
2
Department of Regional Development & Cross Border Studies, University of Western Macedonia, Kozani 50100, Greece
3
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Univeristy of Western Macedonia, Kozani 50132, Greece
Journal of the Knowledge Economy
Introduction A decision-making activity is considered as a managerial action mostly under the control of the organization (Elbanna and Child 2007), even though a complicated and challenging one (Parnell et al. 2011). Literature implies that individuals make their business decisions mainly depending on the risk levels of each decision (Min and Cunha 2019), while managers and executive teams often fail when making strategic decisions due to the fact that these decisions are both complex and ill-structured (Carmeli et al. 2012). Actually, the decision makers in the manufacturing sector are usually confronted with the problem of making a decision through a wide range of alternative options (Venkata 2007). Taking into consideration the complexity and the risk of decision-making process, literature reveals several modeling approaches used in order to assess the risks and probabilities associated with decision processes (Lindley 2000: 293; Nutley and Davies 2000; Sarasin 1999). In this paper we study two liter
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