High seroprevalence of SARS_COV-2 in Bergamo: evidence for herd immunity or reason to be cautious?
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COMMENTARY
High seroprevalence of SARS_COV-2 in Bergamo: evidence for herd immunity or reason to be cautious? Carlo Signorelli1 • Alberto Zucchi2 • Carlo Alberto Tersalvi2 • Roberta Ciampichini1 • Elvira Beato2 Federica Balzarini2 • Anna Odone3 • John Middleton4
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Received: 13 November 2020 / Accepted: 16 November 2020 Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+) 2020
We report 42% Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies’ seroprevalence in one province of Northern Italy and its effect on the second wave. This is one the highest level recorded so far in European seroprevalence studies. We believe this needs to be carefully considered in the context of the current scientific debate about the herd immunity approach to control the COVID-19 outbreak (Aschwanden 2020; Doshi 2020; Omer et al. 2020). Italian public health and political authorities have never considered herd immunity to be the solution to counteract the COVID-19 epidemic (Aschwanden 2020); however, some recent epidemiological data show how this indirect form of protection might begin to have some relevant effects on the progress of the pandemic in Northern Italian Regions. The second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy occurred about two weeks later than in other large European countries, but just as heavy (Odone et al. 2020; Signorelli et al. 2020c). In October 364,569 new cases were reported and 2724 deaths with 4,450,539 tests performed (7417/100 000 population). The COVID-19 burden and infection spread mainly in northern-central metropolitan areas (Milan, Genoa, Turin) and the largest towns in
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101003562. & Carlo Signorelli [email protected] 1
School of Medicine, University Vita-Salute San Raffaele, Via Olgettina, 58, 20132 Milan, Italy
2
Local Health Authority (ATS) of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy
3
Department of Public Health, Experimental and Forensic Medicine, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy
4
The Association of Schools of Public Health in the European Region (ASPHER), Brussels, Belgium
Lombardy, the region where the first European autochthonous cause of COVID-19 was identified on February 20th (Signorelli et al. 2020a, b, c). As the second wave came, the response of the Italian government authorities was not as rapid as in the first phase, when the national lockdown was imposed on March 8th (Signorelli et al. 2020c). Such delay was also determined by fear of the social and economic consequences of the restrictions. This resulted in moderate and less effective mitigation measures, including: coffee shops, and restaurants closing early in the afternoon, curfew, distance learning, smart working and closed gyms and swimming pools. In the last two weeks of October, the impact of the pandemic was particularly violent, although, fortunately, case-fatality dropped considerably (Signorelli and Odone 2020), from 12.6% in the two months of Fe
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