Hurricane Sandy Effects on Coastal Marsh Elevation Change
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SPECIAL ISSUE: HURRICANE SANDY IMPACTS AND RESPONSES
Hurricane Sandy Effects on Coastal Marsh Elevation Change Alice G. Yeates 1 & James B. Grace 2 & Jennifer H. Olker 1 & Glenn R. Guntenspergen 3 & Donald R. Cahoon 3 & Susan Adamowicz 4 & Shimon C. Anisfeld 5 & Nels Barrett 6 & Alice Benzecry 7 & Linda Blum 8 & Robert R. Christian 9 & Joseph Grzyb 10 & Ellen Kracauer Hartig 11,12 & Kelly Hines Leo 13 & Scott Lerberg 14 & James C. Lynch 15 & Nicole Maher 16 & J. Patrick Megonigal 17 & William Reay 14 & Drexel Siok 18 & Adam Starke 13 & Vincent Turner 19 & Scott Warren 20 Received: 27 March 2019 / Revised: 20 March 2020 / Accepted: 11 May 2020 # This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020
Abstract High-magnitude storm events such as Hurricane Sandy are powerful agents of geomorphic change in coastal marshes, potentially altering their surface elevation trajectories. But how do a storm’s impacts vary across a large region spanning a variety of wetland settings and storm exposures and intensities. We determined the short-term impacts of Hurricane Sandy at 223 surface elevation table–marker horizon stations in estuarine marshes located across the northeast region of the United States by comparing poststorm surface elevation change with pre-storm elevation trends. We hypothesized that the storm’s effect on marsh elevation trends would be influenced by position relative to landfall (right or left) and distance from landfall. The structural equation model presented predicts that marshes located to the left of landfall were more likely to experience an elevation gain greater than expected, and this positive deviation from pre-storm elevation trends tended to have a greater magnitude than those experiencing negative deviations (elevation loss), potentially due to greater sediment deposition. The magnitude of negative deviations from elevation change in marshes to the right of landfall was greater than for positive deviations, with a greater effect in marshes within 200 km of landfall, potentially from the extent and magnitude of storm surge. Overall, results provide an integrated picture of how storm characteristics combined with the local wetland setting are important to a storm’s impact on surface elevation, and that the surface elevation response can vary widely among sites across a region impacted by the same storm. Keywords Hurricane Sandy . Marsh dynamics . Storm impacts . Surface elevation table . marker horizon . SET-MH . Structural equation modeling
Introduction Understanding the impacts of tropical cyclones on the stability and resilience of coastal wetlands is important considering the change in the observed and projected frequencies and relative intensities of storm events, and the need for coastal wetlands to trap and retain adequate sediment loads to keep pace with rising sea levels (Knutson et al. 2010; Bender et al. 2010; Peduzzi et al. 2012; Emanuel 2013; Hall and Sobel 2013; Communicated by: Charles Simenstad Electronic suppl
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