Hydrometeorology Forecasting and Applications
This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting, with a focus on water-related applications of meteorological observation and forecasting techniques. The topic includes a wide range of disciplines, such as raingauge, weather rad
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Kevin Sene
Hydrometeorology Forecasting and Applications
123
Kevin Sene United Kingdom
ISBN 978-90-481-3402-1 e-ISBN 978-90-481-3403-8 DOI 10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8 Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009939535 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Cover illustration: Cover image(s) © 2009 JupiterImages Corporation Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Preface
This book provides an introduction to recent developments in the area of hydrometeorological forecasting, with a focus on water-related applications of meteorological observation and forecasting techniques. The Encylopaedia Britannica defines hydrometeorology as a branch of meteorology that deals with problems involving the hydrologic cycle, the water budget and the rainfall statistics of storms. . .(continued). The topic spans a wide range of disciplines, including raingauge, weather radar, satellite, river and other monitoring techniques, rainfall-runoff, flow routing and hydraulic models, and nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction techniques. Applications include flood forecasting, drought forecasting, climate change impact assessments, reservoir management, and water resources and water quality studies. The emphasis in this book is on hydrometeorological forecasting techniques, which are usually distinguished from prediction or simulation studies in that estimates are provided for a specific time or period in the future, rather than for typical past, current or future conditions. Often this requires the use of real-time observations and/or forecasts of meteorological conditions as inputs to hydrological models. The availability of information on current conditions also means that – particularly for short lead times – data assimilation techniques can be used to improve model outputs; typically by adjusting the model inputs, states or parameters, or by post-processing the outputs based on the differences between observed and forecast values up to the time of the forecast. Recent developments in meteorological forecasting techniques have significantly improved the lead times and spatial resolution of forecasts, with single-valued (deterministic) forecasts typically showing skill several days or more ahead, and probabilistic forecasts sometimes providing useful information for periods of weeks ahead or longer. An improved understanding of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric features, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is also improving the skill of forecasts at longer lead times. These improvements are increasingly ref
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