Impact of climate change on hydrology components using CORDEX South Asia climate model in Wunna, Bharathpuzha, and Mahan

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Impact of climate change on hydrology components using CORDEX South Asia climate model in Wunna, Bharathpuzha, and Mahanadi, India Leelambar Singh

&

Subbarayan Saravanan

Received: 14 April 2020 / Accepted: 24 September 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020

Abstract Detecting the probable impact of climate change responses on hydrological components is most important for understanding such changes on water resources. The impact of climate change on virtual parameters of water was assessed through hydrological modeling of the Wunna, Mahanadi (Middle), and Bharathpuzha watersheds. In this article, future hydrological component responses under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were considered for investigating the runoff, sediment, and water storage components. RegCM4 CSIROMk3.6.0 CORDEX South Asia of RCM model was used which is specially downscaled for the Asian region by IITM-India. Delta change method was adopted to remove bias correction in RCM data. Hydrological simulation for current and future periods was performed by GIS interfaced Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The surface runoff of Wunna and Bharathpuzha watersheds and the yield of sediment are expected to increase further under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 and in contrast to Mahanadi watershed. Both blue water storage (BW) and green water storage (GWS) of Wunna watershed are expected to decline under RCP4.5, and rise under RCP8.5 scenario. Both BW and GWS of L. Singh : S. Saravanan (*) Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli, India e-mail: [email protected]

L. Singh e-mail: [email protected]

Bharathpuzha are expected to increase in the future except in western region under RCP4.5 scenario. BW of Mahanadi is expected to increase in the future. However, GWS will decrease in some of the sub-basins. The model-generated results will be helpful for future water resources planning and development. Keywords Climate change . SWAT model . RCP . Blue water . Green water

Introduction Changes of hydrological parameters arise from the combined effects of climate, landuse, and anthropogenic activities in the watershed. Due to climate change, developing countries are facing several challenges in water resource management (Batchelor et al. 2003; Sarkar et al. 2007; Mujumdar 2008; Aggarwal et al. 2009). Greenhouse gases are the critical factor for increasing rainfall frequency and intensity (Gordon et al. 1992). IPCC (2007) states that hot weather contributes more extreme precipitation and raises flood risk. Climate change also affects the water resources diversity and availability in the future (Beniston and Stoffel 2014; Emami and Koch 2019). With increasing demand, freshwater is one of the most important issues that cannot be neglected for current and future distribution of limited water resources. At present, a significant proportion of the world’s population is currently suffering from water stress issue (Oki and Kanae 2006). Agricultural water consumption accounts for nea