Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX‑MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN‑Climate Fatima Driouech1 · Khalid ElRhaz2 · Willfran Moufouma‑Okia3 · Khadija Arjdal1 · Saloua Balhane1 Received: 6 January 2020 / Accepted: 28 July 2020 © The Author(s) 2020
Abstract This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over the CORDEX-MENA domain. Model capabilities to reproduce key observed regional climate features are first assessed, including heat waves, drought and high precipitation extremes. Projected changes indicate the intensification of heat waves number, duration and magnitude, and contrasted precipitation changes. A drying is projected in the north-west and moistening in the north-east along the Mediterranean side of the region. Projected regional warming is found at the rate of about 0.2 °C/decade to 0.5 °C/decade over land depending on the scenario. Drought is expected to increase in the northern half of the region independently from the index used, but with a higher rate in the case of the index accounting for both the effect of precipitation and temperature changes. ALADIN-Climate results corroborate previous studies projecting the MENA region to host global hot spots for drought in the late twenty-first century. Keywords Extremes · Regional climate change · CORDEX · MENA · Heat waves · Drought
1 Introduction The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region extends from the Maghreb in Northwest Africa to the Arabian Peninsula. The MENA region has been proned to climate hazards (Lelieveld et al. 2016; Waha et al. 2017). These include the devastating Syrian Arab Republic’s droughts in 1998–2000 and 2007–2010 (Kelley et al. 2015; Flohr et al. 2017), the recurrent droughts registered during 1980–1994 in Morocco (Mansouri 2004; Driouech 2010), the prolonged drought of Greater Horn of Africa (Shongwe et al. 2011; Mwangi et al. 2014; Rowell et al. 2015; Gebremeskel et al. 2019), drought registered in Jordan and Lebanon in 2014 (Dai 2011; Barlow et al. 2016), as well as important changes of climate characteristics are evidenced by several studies focusing on climate trends at regional and local scales (Nasrallah et al. 2004; * Fatima Driouech [email protected] 1
University Mohamed VI Polytechnique, Benguerir, Morocco
2
Direction Générale de la Météorologie, Casablanca, Morocco
3
Regional Climate Prediction Services Division, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Zhang et al. 2005; Driouech 2010; AlSarmi and Washington 2011; Dahech and Beltrando 2012; Almazroui et al. 2014; Donat et al. 2014; Filahi et al. 2015; Almazroui 2019a). The high climate vulnerability of this region is widely recognized and several negative impacts are expected to make the strengthening of resilience and adaptation (Sowers et al. 2011; United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) et al. 2017; Waha et al. 2017).
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