Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis
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Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis Steven J Smith 1 & Jean Chateau 2 & Kalyn Dorheim 1 & Laurent Drouet 3 & Olivier Durand-Lasserve 2 & Oliver Fricko 4 & Shinichiro Fujimori 5,6 & Tatsuya Hanaoka 6 & Mathijs Harmsen 7,8 & Jérôme Hilaire 9,10 & Kimon Keramidas 11 & Zbigniew Klimont 4 & Gunnar Luderer 9 & Maria Cecilia P. Moura 1 & Keywan Riahi 4 & Joeri Rogelj 12,4 & Fuminori Sano 13 & Detlef P. van Vuuren 7,8 & Kenichi Wada 13 Received: 27 August 2019 / Accepted: 7 July 2020/ # Battelle Memorial Institute 2020
Abstract
The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multimodel suite of scenarios addressing CH4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18– 0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame. Keywords Climate change . Air pollution . Radiative forcing . Black carbon . Methane
This article is part of a Special Issue reporting results from the “Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCF) and Air Quality” edited by John Weyant, Steven J Smith, and Zbigniew Klimont Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002794-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Steven J Smith [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Climatic Change
1 Introduction While the predominant driver of anthropogenic climate change is fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, emissions of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants also impact the climate (Myhre et al. 2013). Interest has focused lately on forcing agents with shorter atmospheric lifetimes, so-called short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), mitigation of which offers the potential for near-term climate-mitigation. SLCF policies are potentially important because they could contribute to mitigating global warming in the short term and, to some extent, offset clim
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