Impacts of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Climate Change on the Regional Climate in the Central Vietnam
Nowadays, it is widely accepted that both elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration as well as land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) can influence the regional climate dynamics. It is a matter of fact that changes in the land use/land cover are often ignor
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Abstract Nowadays, it is widely accepted that both elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration as well as land-use/land-cover change (LULCC) can influence the regional climate dynamics. It is a matter of fact that changes in the land use/land cover are often ignored in long-term regional climate projections. Even worse, often an outdated (RCM default) LU map is applied for modeling. In the framework of the LUCCi project, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting Model WRF in combination with an updated LULC map to study (1) the impacts of an improved and updated Land-Use Land-Cover map on the regional climate in the VuGia-ThuBon basin in Central Vietnam; (2) the impacts separately of both the changed LU map and climate change (CC) on the regional climate; and (3) the sensitivity of land-use conversions in WRF simulations. It is found that the impacts of the outdated LU map exceed those of climate change, at least for the period 2001–2030. In addition, the deforestation scenario does not provide statistically significant signals of the most crucial surface climate variables, whereas the urbanization scenario provides evidence for a temperature signal (temperature increase) over the converted area, but no clear signal for precipitation is found.
P. Laux (&) P.N.B. Nguyen H. Kunstmann Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany e-mail: [email protected] P.N.B. Nguyen IHP/HWRP Secretariat, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, Koblenz 56068, Germany J. Cullmann World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
7 bis, avenue de la Paix, Geneva 2 CH 1211,
© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017 A. Nauditt and L. Ribbe (eds.), Land Use and Climate Change Interactions in Central Vietnam, Water Resources Development and Management, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2624-9_9
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Introduction Mankind has modified more than 50 % of the global land surface, thereby directly altering the exchange of energy, momentum, and water between the atmosphere and the land surface. Albeit it is well known that land-use land cover change (subsequently referred to as LULCC) plays a crucial role for the climate system, far more attention is still paid to the impact of climate change (CC) due to the changing atmospheric GHG composition. The LULCC impacts may vary depending on the region. For example, urbanization typically leads to increased air temperature at surface as well as changes in the spatial patterns and intensities of precipitation, but their magnitudes depend on day time, season, geographical location, climate regime, circulation feedback, and surrounding land cover (e.g., Giannaros et al. 2013; Grimmond et al. 2011; Niyogi et al. 2011; Stewart and Oke 2012; Vargo et al. 2013). Deforestation may lead to decreased surface air temperatures in temperate regions, but increased temperatures in tropical regions (e.g., Costa and Pires 2010; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré 2010). According to Mahmood
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