Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade
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Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade Vassilis Daioglou, et al. [full author details at the end of the article] Received: 24 December 2017 / Accepted: 24 September 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/ year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade. Keywords Bioenergy trade . Climate policy . Energy security . Scenario analysis . Integrated assessment models . EMF
This article is part of the Special Issue on "Assessing Large-scale Global Bioenergy Deployment for Managing Climate Change (EMF-33)" edited by Steven Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Shinichiro Fuminori, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, and Marshall Wise. Matteo Muratori performed his work while at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Patrick Lamers performed his work while at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho Falls, Idaho, USA Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002877-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Climate change mitigation scenarios, as projected by several integrated assessment models (IAMs), show that bioenergy may play a crucial role in meeting strict climate targets (Clarke et al. 2014; Rose et al. 2014; Bauer et al. 2018; Muratori et al. 2020). Biomass is a particularly attra
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