Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study
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Bioenergy technologies in long-run climate change mitigation: results from the EMF-33 study Vassilis Daioglou, et al. [full author details at the end of the article] Received: 15 October 2018 / Accepted: 15 July 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services. Keywords Bioenergy . Biomass . Climate policy . Technological change . Scenario analysis . Integrated assessment models
This article is part of the special issue “Assessing Large-scale Global Bioenergy Deployment for Managing Climate Change (EMF-33)” edited by Steven Rose, John Weyant, Nico Bauer, Shinichiro Fuminori, Petr Havlik, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, and Marshall Wise. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002799-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Studies have highlighted that bioenergy could play a potentially significant role in the long-run management of climate change, substantially lowering the cost of realizing climate goals, and even facilitating the feasibility of those goals (Rose et al. 2014; Clarke et al. 2014; Luckow et al. 2010; Klein et al. 2014; Kriegler et al. 2014; Van Vuuren et al. 2010). Many of these same studies have also indicated s
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