Independent forecasts
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Economic & Labour Market Review | Vol 1 | No 3 | March 2007
Independ e n t f o re c a s t s February 2007 The tables below supplement the Economic review by providing a forward-looking view of the UK and world economy.
UK forecasts The UK tables show the average and range of independent forecasts for 2006 and 2007 and are extracted from HM Treasury’s Forecasts for the UK Economy.
2007
2008
Average
Lowest
Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 2.5 1.1 2.9 Inflation rate (Q4, per cent) 2.0 1.4 3.0 CPI 3.0 2.3 3.9 RPI Claimant unemployment (Q4, million) 0.98 0.86 1.15 Current account (£ billion) –34.8 –56.9 –18.3 Public Sector Net Borrowing (2006-07, £ billion) 36.8 28.4 44.5
Average
Lowest
Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 2.3 –0.3 2.8 Inflation rate (Q4, per cent) 2.0 1.7 2.4 CPI 2.6 1.9 3.3 RPI Claimant unemployment (Q4, million) 1.01 0.82 1.30 Current account (£ billion) –36.4 –62.3 –23.8 Public Sector Net Borrowing (2008-09, £ billion) 34.7 25.0 46.2
Notes Forecasts for the UK economy gives more detailed forecasts, covering 27 variables, and is published monthly by HM Treasury. It is available on the Treasury’s website at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/data_index.cfm
Selected world forecasts The world tables show forecasts for a range of economic indicators taken from Economic Outlook (preliminary edition), published by OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).
2007
US
Japan
Euro area
Total OECD
Real GDP growth (per cent) 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.6 0.2 2.0 Consumer price (percentage change from previous year) Unemployment rate (per cent of the labour force) 4.8 3.9 7.4 –6.5 4.5 –0.1 Current account (as a percentage of GDP) –2.8 –4.2 –1.1 Fiscal balance ( as a percentage of GDP)
2.5 2.2 5.8 –1.9 –2.1
2008
US
Japan
Euro area
Total OECD
Real GDP growth (per cent) 2.7 2.0 2.6 0.6 Consumer price (percentage change from previous year) 5.1 3.6 Unemployment rate (per cent of the labour force) –6.6 5.3 Current account (as a percentage of GDP) –2.9 –4.1 Fiscal balance ( as a percentage of GDP)
2.3 2.0 7.1 –0.1 –1.2
2.7 2.1 5.7 –1.8 –2.2
Notes The OECD Economic Outlook is published bi-annually. Further information about this publication can be found at www.oecd.org/eco/Economic_Outlook
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Office for National Statistics
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