Independent forecasts
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Independ e n t f o re c a s t s March 2007 The tables below supplement the Economic review by providing a forward-looking view of the UK and world economy.
UK forecasts The UK tables show the average and range of independent forecasts for 2007 and 2008 and are extracted from HM Treasury’s Forecasts for the UK Economy.
2007
Average
Lowest
2008
Highest
GDP growth (per cent) 2.6 1.3 3.0 Inflation rate (Q4, per cent) 1.9 1.4 3.0 CPI RPI 3.1 2.4 3.9 Claimant unemployment (Q4, million) 0.97 0.86 1.15 Current account (£ billion) –36.7 –57.7 –25.1 Public Sector Net Borrowing (2007/08, £ billion) 36.5 28.7 44.5
GDP growth (per cent) Inflation rate (Q4, per cent) CPI RPI Claimant unemployment (Q4, million) Current account (£ billion) Public Sector Net Borrowing (2008/09, £ billion)
Average
Lowest
Highest
2.3
–0.3
2.9
2.0 2.6 1.00 –37.8 34.3
1.5 1.5 0.81 –63.7 22.5
2.3 3.3 1.30 –23.8 49.3
Notes Forecasts for the UK economy gives more detailed forecasts, covering 27 variables, and is published monthly by HM Treasury. It is available on the Treasury’s website at www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/data_index.cfm
Selected world forecasts The world tables show forecasts for a range of economic indicators taken from Economic Outlook (preliminary edition), published by OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).
2007 Real GDP growth (per cent) Consumer price (percentage change from previous year) Unemployment rate (per cent of the labour force) Current account (as a percentage of GDP) Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP)
US
Japan
Euro area
Total OECD
2.4 2.6 4.8 –6.5 –2.8
2.0 0.2 3.9 4.5 –4.2
2.2 2.0 7.4 –0.1 –1.1
2.5 2.2 5.8 –1.9 –2.1
US
Japan
Euro area
Total OECD
2.7 2.6 5.1 –6.6 –2.9
2.0 0.6 3.6 5.3 –4.1
2.3 2.0 7.1 –0.1 –1.2
2.7 2.1 5.7 –1.8 –2.2
2008 Real GDP growth (per cent) Consumer price (percentage change from previous year) Unemployment rate (per cent of the labour force) Current account (as a percentage of GDP) Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP)
Notes The OECD Economic Outlook is published bi-annually. Further information about this publication can be found at www.oecd.org/eco/Economic_Outlook
Office for National Statistics
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