Integrating evolutionary, demographic and ecophysiological processes to predict the adaptive dynamics of forest tree pop
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REVIEW
Integrating evolutionary, demographic and ecophysiological processes to predict the adaptive dynamics of forest tree populations under global change Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio 1
&
Hendrik Davi 1 & François Lefèvre 1
Received: 29 November 2019 / Revised: 9 April 2020 / Accepted: 3 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Three types of process-based models (PBMs) are traditionally used to predict the response of forest tree populations to global change (GC): (i) ecophysiological models, which simulate carbon and water fluxes in forest ecosystems by explicitly integrating the effects of climate and CO2; (ii) forest dynamics models which simulate forest successions by explicitly linking mortality, growth and regeneration processes; and (iii) evolutionary dynamics models, which simulate the variation and evolution of adaptive traits by explicitly accounting for selection, mutation, gene flow and inheritance rules. The ongoing context of rapid GC, however, questions the boundaries between these types of models. Here, we review different strategies of model integration: (i) physio-demographic PBMs, integrating physiological and demographic processes; (ii) demo-genetic PBMs, integrating demographic and evolutionary processes; and (iii) physio-demo-genetic PBMs, which attempt to integrate these three types of processes. We show that these integrative models allow a better understanding of how different functional traits influence demographic rates (the phenotype-demography map), how the variation in demographic rates influences fitness (the demography-fitness map) and how individual variations of fitness may in turn influence the genetic composition of a population. Our review highlights that accounting for inter-individual variation in ecological processes is increasingly recognized as crucial for modelling the ecosystem response to environmental change. We argue that the effort of integrating these different processes is valuable, both for a basic understanding of their interactive effects on the responses of forests to GC and for applied horizon scanning to support adaptive strategies. Keywords Inter-individual variation . Process-based models . Demo-genetic models . Physio-demographic models . Physio-demo-genetic models . Intraspecific variation . Functional traits . Performance traits
Introduction Predicting the response of trees, the keystone species of forest ecosystems, to ongoing global change (GC) is a critical ecological, societal and economic issue. Indeed, forests provide a multiple source of ecosystem services and well-being to Communicated by S.C. González-Martínez Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11295-020-01451-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio [email protected] 1
INRAE, UR 629 Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes, URFM, 84000 Avignon, France
human populations, including biodiversity sustainability, carbon sequestration an
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