Investigating the tipping point of crop productivity induced by changing climatic variables
- PDF / 1,044,327 Bytes
- 11 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 66 Downloads / 168 Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Investigating the tipping point of crop productivity induced by changing climatic variables Fatimah Mahmood 1 & Muhammad Fahim Khokhar 1
&
Zafar Mahmood 2
Received: 30 December 2019 / Accepted: 26 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract South Asia is comprised of several countries, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka, all ranked highly at risk of climatic variability. The region’s susceptibility to climate change can be attributed to both its spatial and inherent characteristics. Considering the countries’ high dependence on agricultural products, to support their economies and growing populations, it is vital to measure the factors impacting crop productivity. This study quantifies the change in temperature and precipitation, coupled with their respective effects on the productivity of three major crops, wheat, rice and cotton, within two of Pakistan’s largest provinces: Punjab and Sindh. Based on the collated data, multivariate regression analysis is conducted. Moreover, highly vulnerable areas to climate change have been identified under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, until the end of this century. Results reveal that there is a substantial increasing trend in temperature, whereas precipitation has high inter-annual variability. Regression outcomes, based on fixed/random effects models, indicate that temperature above threshold values of 24.3 °C, 33.0 °C and 32.0 °C for wheat, rice and cotton, respectively, negatively impacts productivity (statistically significant). Precipitation is statistically insignificant in explaining its role in crop productivity. Overall, the region is heading towards temperature and threshold exceedances at an alarming rate, which will impact the overall availability of suitable crop-growing areas. Keywords Climate change . Crop productivity . Food security . Pakistan . Precipitation . Temperature
Regional perspective The South Asian countries (SACs) is comprised of a group of eight countries, namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, stretching over an area of approximately 5.2 million km2 and home to a quarter of the world’s population (Thakur and Wiggin 2004). The region is highly diverse in terms of both climate and topography, providing optimal conditions to a wide variety of crops. Cumulatively, SACs contribute a GDP of $3.32 trillion, with the agricultural sector accounting for approximately 30% of Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues * Muhammad Fahim Khokhar [email protected] 1
Institute of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
2
School of Social Sciences & Humanities, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
the total (Bashir 2000). On the contrary, food insecurity still poses a substantial problem, despite high economic growth in some countries. There are approximately 277.2 million undernourished people in South Asia (FAO 2018
Data Loading...
