Is Bangkok at risk of marine flooding? Evidence relating to the historical floods of AD 1785 and 1983
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Is Bangkok at risk of marine flooding? Evidence relating to the historical floods of AD 1785 and 1983 James P. Terry1 · Nigel Winspear2 · James Goff3,4 Received: 19 May 2020 / Accepted: 26 September 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Thailand’s low-lying capital city Bangkok is a dense metropolis, one of Asia’s rapidly growing ‘megacities’, and home to over 10 million residents. Bangkok’s location on the sinking Chao Phraya Delta means it has a high susceptibility to river flooding. However, the possible contribution of marine incursion to river flooding is not as widely recognised and needs further consideration. We therefore re-examine the historically documented floods in AD 1785 and 1983. Available evidence suggests that the superposition of different flood behaviours was important during both events. Attention is drawn to the evidence for, and contributory roles played by, astronomical spring tides, meteorological tides, storm waves and possibly storm surge. These marine effects can exacerbate river floods caused by seasonal peak flows in the tidal lower Chao Phraya River during the early north-east monsoon. For future management of flood risk, it is therefore necessary to recognise that Bangkok has a compound flood-risk profile that includes both hydrometeorological and marine influences. The significance of marine influences on Bangkok’s flood risk is likely to increase in future with continuing eustatic sea-level rise and subsidence of the Chao Phraya Delta. Keywords Bangkok · Chao Phraya River · Flood risk · Meteorological tides · Tropical storms
1 Introduction 1.1 River flood risk to Bangkok Flood vulnerability for cities on deltas is increasing worldwide, where the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to river flow and sediment supply, land subsidence and eustatic * James P. Terry [email protected] 1
College of Natural and Health Sciences, Zayed University, PO Box 19282, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
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CATRISX SERVICES LTD, Woking, UK
3
PANGEA Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
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School of Ocean and Earth Science, Faculty of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
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Natural Hazards
sea-level rise pose an immediate flood threat to 500–1000 million residents globally (Twilley et al. 2016). Bangkok, the capital city and commercial hub of Thailand, sprawls across the expansive delta of the Chao Phraya River (CPR). The wider Bangkok Metropolitan Area is one of Asia’s rapidly growing ‘megacities’ and home to over 10 million people. The city lies mostly less than 2.5 m above sea level and has an acute susceptibility to river flooding. Many hydrometeorological factors and anthropogenic activities are influential, as articulated in several reports (Cooper 2014; McBean et al. 2017). While upland forest clearance has increased river discharges, the draining of wetlands and infilling of natural waterways and canals have reduced the network of distributary channels on the delta (Engkagul 1993). U
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