Lead and Lag Times of Countries in a Gentler World
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Lead and Lag Times of Countries in a Gentler World Oliver Nahkur1 · Rein Taagepera2,3 Accepted: 1 November 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Are we moving towards a gentler world, and if so, how fast are we moving? Using data for 25 countries from 1991 to 2012, a positive trend is observed in four indicators—Welzel’s Emancipative Values Index and Gender Equality sub-index, Locus of Control and Nahkur’s Societal Index of Interpersonal Destructiveness (SIID). Applying the simple logistic growth pattern over time, from a floor of 0 to a ceiling of 1, it is apparent that gender equality scores and locus of control are past their fastest growth phase (middle part of the stretched-out S-curve). Emancipative Values Index is in its fastest growth phase, but as its S curve is much more stretched out, so its increase is slow. Normalized SIID is already in its late growth phase, close to the ceiling at 1; thus its further increase is bound to be quite slow. We also looked at the lead and lag times of individual countries compared to world average. This is more informative than saying “Country A is below the world average by x units”. The average lag time was by far the largest for Russia, Ukraine and Moldova (56– 42 years). The average lead time was by far the largest for Sweden and Norway (116 and 42 years). Central East Europe was the only region where index values rose rather steadily. Post-2012 increase rate is bound to be slower, feeding frustration. Keywords Emancipative values · Gender equality values · Locus of control · Societal Index of Interpersonal Destructiveness · Simple logistic growth · Lead/lag times
1 Introduction Let us imagine a “Harsh World” at one extreme, “the war of all against all” as described by Thomas Hobbes, and a “Gentle World” at the other, where all people communicate nonviolently (Rosenberg 2002). Although a rise of violent crime occurred in 1960–1990 in many countries, Pinker (2011) states that since early 1990s violence in the world—including different forms of interpersonal violence—has declined and we may be living in the least violent era our species has seen. Pinker (2011) considers recent violence decline a
* Oliver Nahkur [email protected]; [email protected] 1
Institute of Social Studies, University of Tartu, Lossi 36, 51003 Tartu, Estonia
2
School of Social Sciences, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
3
Johan Skytte Institute of Political Studies, University of Tartu, Lossi 36, 51003 Tartu, Estonia
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continuation of a longer trend, calling the past few decades a “recivilizing” period. This suggests a move toward “a kinder, gentler world” (Bush 1988).1 A gentle world characterized by interpersonal productiveness seems a better place to live in than a harsh world where interpersonal destructiveness is common. So we can consider a gentle world as an end goal. We can draw parallels with the concept of “good society2” (e.g., Anderson 2012; Khan 2015) whose proponents see it—instead of economic growt
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