Life cycle emissions assessment of transition to low-carbon vehicles in Japan: combined effects of banning fossil-fueled
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Life cycle emissions assessment of transition to low‑carbon vehicles in Japan: combined effects of banning fossil‑fueled vehicles and enhancing green hydrogen and electricity Akihiro Watabe1 · Jonathan Leaver2 · Ehsan Shafiei3 · Hiroyuki Ishida4,5 Received: 1 April 2020 / Accepted: 7 August 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract This paper examines the impact on the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction when fossil-fueled ICE gasoline, diesel and natural gas vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are banned in a step-by-step manner from 2035. We examine the impact of vehicle bans on life cycle GHG emissions and on the marginal cost (MC) of emissions reduction using four different scenarios defined by hydrogen production method, renewable energy share, and infrastructure development for refueling stations. The vehicle penetration and the fuel demand are determined by a consumer choice model characterized by a multinomial logit algorithm. Our analysis found that vehicle bans significantly promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for mini-sized vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) for light and heavyduty vehicles. A vehicle ban that excludes BEVs and FCVs from 2035 under an enhanced infrastructure plan can reduce the life cycle GHG emissions as much as 438 million tonnes by 2060 compared to the 2017 level. The MC of the life cycle GHG mitigation decreases continuously and reaches as low as $482 per tonne CO2eq in 2060. However, if PHEVs are excluded from the ban, the life cycle GHG emissions are reduced more by 88 Mt-CO2eq in 2060 at a lower MC of $122 per tonne CO2eq. This is due to decreases in GHG emissions from VP where the replacement of PHEVs for BEVs and FCVs reduces the production of batteries and fuel cells.
* Akihiro Watabe [email protected]‑u.ac.jp Jonathan Leaver [email protected] Ehsan Shafiei [email protected] Hiroyuki Ishida [email protected] 1
Department of Economics, Kanagawa University, 3‑27‑1 Rokkakubashi, Kanagawa‑ku, Yokohama 221‑8686, Japan
2
School of Engineering, Unitec Institute of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand
3
Energy Transition Programme, DNV-GL, Oslo, Norway
4
School of Social Informatics, Aoyama Gakuin University, Sagamihara, Japan
5
Electric Power Industry & New and Renewable Energy Unit, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, Tokyo, Japan
13
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A. Watabe et al.
Graphic abstract The main structure of the model. Consumer's Vehicle Choice
Hydrogen
Electricity
Fossil Fuels
Vehicle prices
Demand
Supply
Demand
Supply
Demand
Supply
Fuel prices (Electricity, Hydrogen, Fossil Fuels)
Industries
Fossil Fuels
FCVs
Natural Gas Reforming
Power Generaon
Import
Solar Electrolysis
Vehicles
Domesc Resources
Maintenance costs Fuel economy Driving range
Commercial Renewables and Resident BEVs, PHEVs
Nuclear
Fuel availability
Charging and Refueling Staons
GDP Populaon
Vehicle Stock and Ma
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