Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, north

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RESEARCH ARTICLE

Open Access

Magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality from Kilite-Awlaelo health demographic surveillance database, northern Ethiopia, 2009–2017 Hiluf Ebuy Abraha1* , Abate Bekele Belachew2, Mohamedawel Mohammedniguss Ebrahim3, Mengistu Hagazi Tequare2, Mache Tsadik Adhana2 and Natnael Etsay Assefa4

Abstract Background: Globally, neonatal and child mortality remains still high. Under-five mortality accounts for four-fifth of child and young adolescent deaths. In Ethiopia, though there has been a remarkable progress over the past years, under-five mortality is still high. Evidence from population-based longitudinal studies on under-five mortality is limited. Thus, this study aims to investigate the magnitude, trend, and causes of under-five mortality in the KiliteAwlaelo Health Demographic Surveillance System, Northern Ethiopia. Methods: Kilite-Awlaelo health and demographic surveillance system was established in 2009 in the northern part of Ethiopia. Population-based longitudinal study design was carried out through extracting data for nine consecutive years (2009–2017). After smoothing the data revealed a visually decreasing trend. Linear, quadratic, exponential, and autoregressive time-series models were checked. Accordingly, the exponential trend model provided the best fit with the lowest standard error of estimate, lowest sum square error and highest adjusted R2 value. Cause-specific mortality was determined by cross tabulating cause of death with specific age death. Results: The overall under-five mortality rate was 35.62 per 1000 livebirths. The under-five mortality rate of rural and urban residents was 37.58 and 12.99 deaths per 1000 livebirths respectively. The exponential trend model showed the under-five mortality rate was declining exponentially. Bacterial sepsis 67(20.6%), prematurity 37(11.08%), intestinal infection disease 30(8.98%), acute lower respiratory infections 26(7.78%), and birth asphyxia 24(7.19%) were the major causes of under-five mortality. (Continued on next page)

* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 College of Health Sciences, Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Clinical Governance and Quality Improvement Unit, Mekelle University, Mek’ele, Tigray, Ethiopia Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to