Measuring ecosystem services based on government intentions for future land use in Hubei Province: implications for sust
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Measuring ecosystem services based on government intentions for future land use in Hubei Province: implications for sustainable landscape management Gui Jin . Kun Chen . Tian Liao . Lei Zhang
. Omaid Najmuddin
Received: 6 January 2020 / Accepted: 14 September 2020 Ó Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Context Exploring how ecosystem service values (ESV) are likely to change based on government intentions to develop and protect land is essential for sustainable landscape management. Objectives (1) Simulate land use change under future baseline (BAS), resource consumption (CON), and resource protection (PRO) scenarios, based on forecasted land expropriation prices implemented by the government of Hubei Province. (2) Measure changes in ecosystem services influenced by future G. Jin School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China K. Chen L. Zhang (&) Faculty of Resources and Environment Science, Hubei University, 368 Youyi Road, Wuhan 430062, China e-mail: [email protected] K. Chen L. Zhang Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Regional Development and Environmental Response, 368 Youyi Road, Wuhan 430062, China T. Liao College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, 152 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China O. Najmuddin International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal
land use. (3) Provide sustainable landscape management strategies to control the risk of ecosystem service loss. Methods This research couples Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change and Dynamics of Land System (CGELUC-DLS) models to simulate land use changes and calculated ESV using the equivalent factor method. Results (1) Predicted areas of cultivated land, forest, and grassland throughout Hubei Province declined under the three scenarios between 2015 and 2025. (2) Compared with 2015, equivalent values per unit area of ecosystem services (ESVe) decreased by 2.27%, 4.01%, and 1.67% in 2025 under BAS, CON, and PRO scenarios, respectively. The future trend in ESVe reduction across western Hubei Province did abate in the PRO scenario. (3) Reasonably adjusting land expropriation prices is a regulatory approach that can serve to strengthen sustainable landscape management in China. Conclusions ESV will inevitably decline in the future due to continuous land use changes across Hubei Province. The government should implement diversified strategies to control ecosystem services loss, including adjusting land expropriation prices, adopting regional differentiated management strategies, and implementing intensive but sustainable land use policies.
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Landscape Ecol
Keywords Ecosystem services Government intentions Scenarios simulation CGELUC-DLS models Sustainable landscape management
Introduction In the process of urbanization, human activities have become heavily reliant on energy, water, and land resources (Jin et al. 2020). These changes have led to a number
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