Merge L-Moment Method, Regional Frequency Analysis and SDI for Monitoring and Zoning Map of Short-Term and Long-Term Hyd
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RESEARCH PAPER
Merge L‑Moment Method, Regional Frequency Analysis and SDI for Monitoring and Zoning Map of Short‑Term and Long‑Term Hydrologic Droughts in the Khuzestan Province of Iran Arash Adib1 · Azam Kashani1 · Seyed Mohammad Ashrafi1 Received: 18 January 2020 / Accepted: 20 July 2020 © Shiraz University 2020
Abstract In recent years, the climatic change and global warming have affected on meteorological and hydrologic conditions in dry and warm regions. The severity of occurred droughts has increased in these regions. This research monitors 3- , 6- , 9- and 12-month hydrologic drought severity in the Khuzestan Province, with 51 hydrometric stations, based on drought return periods and streamflow drought index (SDI). The length of the statistical period is 62 years (1954–2016). Application of homogeneity statistic shows that the Khuzestan Province has 3 homogeneous regions for three-month time scale and 2 homogeneous regions for other time scales. The applied method for regional frequency analysis is linear moment method. By increasing of linear moment parameters, intensity of droughts will increase and drought return periods will reduce. Results of research show that severe and extreme hydrologic droughts can observe at the whole of this province in near future. Return period of these droughts is larger than 5 years. Also, intensity of hydrologic drought is milder in north and east of this province. Keywords Hydrologic drought · Linear moment method · Regional frequency analysis · Streamflow drought index (SDI) · The Khuzestan Province
1 Introduction The hydrologic droughts occur when the mean of flow discharge in a certain period is less than long-term mean of flow discharge. This type of drought occurs after the occurrence of meteorological droughts (shortage of precipitation causes meteorological droughts). The destructive effects of hydrologic droughts are more than meteorological droughts. Therefore, monitoring of this type of drought is an urgent need for arid and semiarid countries as the Middle East countries. A region that faces with extreme climatic changes in recent years is the Khuzestan Province in southwest of Iran. These changes are excessive temperature rise especially in summer (temperature of this province reached to more Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s40996-020-00447-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Arash Adib [email protected] 1
Civil Engineering Department, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Engineering Faculty, Ahvaz, Iran
than 55 °C in July 2017), occurrence of extreme dust storms after 2007, severe reduction in annual precipitation and flow discharge of rivers, occurrence of severe and extreme hydrologic droughts. Factors that caused these changes are effects of Iran and Iraq war, Persian Gulf War, construction of large dams at the upstream of major rivers of this region, drying wetlands as the Hawr-al-Azim Wetland, extraction of large amounts of oil and gas an
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