Producing forest fire susceptibility map via multi-criteria decision analysis and frequency ratio methods
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Producing forest fire susceptibility map via multi‑criteria decision analysis and frequency ratio methods Deniz Arca1 · Mercan Hacısalihoğlu2 · Ş. Hakan Kutoğlu3 Received: 17 December 2018 / Accepted: 2 July 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Located in the Mediterranean basin, one of the world’s leading places in terms of forest fires, Turkey is one of the countries where forest fires are experienced very often due to both natural and socio-economic conditions. The objective of this study is to conduct a forest fire susceptibility analysis within the boundaries of Karabük Forestry Directorate. This analysis was conducted considering the factors affecting the forest fire risk (elevation, slope, aspect, distance to road lines, distance to settlement, land surface temperature and stand type). The factors used in the study were analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS) techniques and analytic hierarchy process method and frequency ratio method. The forest fire susceptibility map produced was classified in 5 categories including very low, low, moderate, high and very fire susceptibility. In order to see how much the forest fire susceptibility map produced corresponds to reality, the forest fire susceptibility maps and the forest fire inventory map were highly compared, and a 73.92% correspondence was detected according to the multi-criteria decision analysis method, while a 76.42% correspondence was detected in the frequency ratio method. As a result, it was concluded that high- and very high-sensitive areas were dominant in the study area, and the site had a high forest fire potential. Ultimately, this study indicated that GIS could be used as a tool to help make effective decisions during forest fire planning. Keywords Multi-criteria decision analysis · Frequency ratio method · GIS · Forest fire susceptibility map · Karabük
* Deniz Arca [email protected] Mercan Hacısalihoğlu [email protected] Ş. Hakan Kutoğlu [email protected] 1
Department of Izmir Vocational School, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey
2
Zonguldak Forest District Directorate, 67000 Zonguldak, Turkey
3
Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bülent Ecevit University, 67100 Zonguldak, Turkey
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Forests are natural resources that should be protected very well due to their contributions to sustainability of the ecological balance and to the economy. However, fires caused by natural and human reasons are the most extreme disaster for these areas. Forest fires are global phenomenon that are caused by natural or human reasons, sometimes lead to loss of life and property (Bento Gonçalves et al. 2012). Forest fires pose a major natural risk for Turkey, a Mediterranean country. Forest fires have increased in recent years as a result of climate change, global warming, socio-economic change and inappropriate forest planning and have negative effects on soil fertility and structure (Vieira et al. 2011). Forest fires that have occu
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