Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapi
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Isabelle Piot-Lepetit · Robert M’Barek Editors
Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
Foreword by John Bensted-Smith
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Editors Isabelle Piot-Lepetit European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Edifico Expo, c/ Inca Garcilaso 3 E-41092 Seville, Spain [email protected]
Robert M’Barek European Commission Joint Research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Edifico Expo, c/ Inca Garcilaso 3 E-41092 Seville, Spain [email protected]
ISBN 978-1-4419-7633-8 e-ISBN 978-1-4419-7634-5 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-7634-5 Springer New York Dordrecht Heidelberg London Library of Congress Control Number: 2011926591 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2011 All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Foreword
After a decade-long period of relative stagnation in prices of main agricultural commodities, price fluctuations in the last 4 years have highlighted the need for more investigations into the topic of agricultural commodity price volatility. In fact, it now has a prominent place on the policy-making agenda. Price changes have always been a feature of agricultural markets, as market clearing conditions require that supply matches demand. A more recent problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility cause uncertainty among market actors, thus preventing the market from functioning properly. Driven by the increased globalisation and the integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between all sectors of the economy are evolving and becoming more complex. When a disruption, such as a regional drought, food safety alert or financial crisis, hits a particular market, the direction and magnitude of the impacts are not foreseeable. Will it impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions? Understanding the nature of agricultural commodity price volatility, anticipating its emergence and managing its consequences are now more than ever of considerable interest for improving agricultural market analysis and policy development. To this end, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) is engaged in the anal
