Migration and Natural Hazards: Is Relocation a Secondary Disaster or an Opportunity for Vulnerability Reduction?
Natural hazards result in substantial human movement and displacement. As the world approaches the year 2050, scientists expect that tipping points will be exceeded and rapid-onset natural hazard events will increase (IPCC, 2007). These developments could
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Migration and Natural Hazards: Is Relocation a Secondary Disaster or an Opportunity for Vulnerability Reduction? Nishara Fernando, Koko Warner and Jo¨rn Birkmann
1 Introduction Natural hazards result in substantial human movement and displacement. As the world approaches the year 2050, scientists expect that tipping points will be exceeded and rapid-onset natural hazard events will increase (IPCC, 2007). These developments could move migration to a new magnitude (Christian Aid, 2007; IOM, 2008; Myers, 2002). Recent cyclones in Burma and earthquakes in China have together displaced 17.4 million people temporarily. Within a period of 1 month in early 2008, millions of people were displaced by natural hazards – 15 million in Sichuan, China (IFRC, 2008) and an estimated 2.4 million in Myanmar (Lom, 2008). However, these snapshots taken during and directly after the disasters are not sufficient. For an improved understanding of the nexus between vulnerability and migration induced by environmental stressors, it is interesting to examine whether relocation is a secondary disaster or an opportunity for vulnerability reduction. Since the scale of such migration flows linked to environmental stressors is expected to rise with unprecedented impacts on lives and livelihoods, these questions need more attention. Temporary displacement from natural catastrophes can further lead to permanent migration, as illustrated by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The Indian Ocean Tsunami in late 2004 displaced over 2 million people (AidWatch, 2006). The UN Office of the Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery estimates that 1.5 million people lost their livelihoods in the aftermath of the tsunami, further complicating the resettlement of migrants (ibid). Another devastating natural catastrophe, Hurricane Katrina, resulted in the largest displacement of Americans in the country’s history (see also, Chapter 3, by Franc¸ois Gemenne, this book). Hurricane Katrina ultimately caused about 1.5 million people to be displaced temporarily and an estimated 300,000 people permanently (Grier, 2005). Of the 1.5 million displaced people, K. Warner (*) United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security, Section on Environmental Migration, Social Vulnerability, and Adaptation, Bonn, Germany e-mail: [email protected] T. Afifi, J. Ja¨ger (eds.), Environment, Forced Migration and Social Vulnerability, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-12416-7_11, Ó Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010
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an estimated 107,000 illegal immigrants and temporary guest workers experienced secondary displacement due to Katrina – these affected people were already migrants when Katrina forced them to move again (Castillo, 2005). As the number of economic and other forms of migrants grows worldwide, the potential for displacing people who are already uprooted grows. This presents a new challenge for humanitarian assistance, emergency and evacuation planning, and post-disaster rehabilitation programmes.
1.1 How Many Peop
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