Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand A Risk Management Perspe
The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium-sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. The model incorporates the grid load as an exogenous fa
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Springer awards „BestMasters“ to the best master’s theses which have been completed at renowned universities in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. The studies received highest marks and were recommended for publication by supervisors. They address current issues from various fields of research in natural sciences, psychology, technology, and economics. The series addresses practitioners as well as scientists and, in particular, offers guidance for early stage researchers.
Kevin Berk
Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand A Risk Management Perspective
Kevin Berk Siegen, Germany
BestMasters ISBN 978-3-658-08668-8 ISBN 978-3-658-08669-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-08669-5 Library of Congress Control Number: 2015930741 Springer Spektrum © Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper Springer Spektrum is a brand of Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Foreword The liberalization of the energy sector and the rapid increase of electricity production by renewables has changed the business of utilities as well as their customers a lot. They both have an increasing interest in good stochastic models for load profiles for better risk management decisions. In retail pricing e.g. there is more and more a tendency of charging prices to customers with fixed-price contracts that depend on their volume risk and on the pricevolume correlation risk. Utility companies have an interest in understanding these risks and charging risk premiums to the customers. Therefore the customers also have an interest in understanding these risks to develop methods to reducing these risks, as they are costly. The master thesis of Kevin Berk develops a stochastic model for the electricity demand of small and medium sized companies that is flexible enough so that it can be used for various business sectors. This is a completely new field of research whe
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