Modeling land use/land cover change and mapping morphological fragmentation of agricultural lands in Thrace Region/Turke
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Modeling land use/land cover change and mapping morphological fragmentation of agricultural lands in Thrace Region/Turkey Bahadir Alturk1 · Fatih Konukcu2 Received: 14 December 2018 / Accepted: 30 September 2019 © Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract Human factors such as development of new roads and urban and industrial areas have caused reduction and fragmentation of agricultural lands in Thrace Region as in many parts of the world over the past few decades. To minimize the negative impact of these anthropogenic activities, it is necessary to forecast spatiotemporal land use/land cover change and its effect on agricultural land fragmentation for future. In this study, first, land use/land cover change was simulated with CLUE-S model under three scenarios for 2050. Then, morphological fragmentation and disorder degree of agricultural lands were analyzed using land use/land cover change maps (1990 and 2014), simulation results (2050) and 1/25,000 Tekirdağ Provincial Environmental Plan (2023). Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis and entropy methods were used to determine the spatiotemporal fragmentation degree in agricultural lands. Results of scenarios 1 and 2 demonstrate that urban areas will increase due to population growth, and increasing urban and industrial land sprawl will accelerate the decline and fragmentation of agricultural lands until 2050. However, loss and fragmentation of core agricultural lands for scenario 3 where the protection rules are applied will be less than scenarios 1 and 2. To mitigate further fragmentation in agricultural lands in the future, particularly artificial spatial development areas should be constructed on the zones with currently high entropy and fragmented small core pieces. This study, as a tool for performance review in regional planning, recommends a set of measures to control agricultural land fragmentation, such as more effective protection of remaining unfragmented areas. Keywords Land use/land cover change modeling · Urbanization · Morphological spatial pattern analysis · Entropy
* Bahadir Alturk [email protected] Fatih Konukcu [email protected] 1
Vocational School of Technical Sciences, Namik Kemal University, 59030 Tekirdaǧ, Turkey
2
Biosystem Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Namik Kemal University, 59030 Tekirdaǧ, Turkey
13
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B. Alturk, F. Konukcu
1 Introduction Land use/land cover change is a very common phenomenon which drives global environmental change and sustainable development (Lambin et al. 2000). It impacts natural landscape providing ecosystem services such as crop growth, controlling soil erosion, regulation of local climate change, scenic open spaces and wildlife habitat for animals. It also affects indirectly safety of people socioeconomically on a global scale (Verburg et al. 2004). Though agricultural lands are significant contributor for economic development, it is dramatically replaced by artificial surfaces such as roads, urban areas and industrial zones due to anthropogenic activities (Su et a
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