Modelling the range expansion of the Tiger mosquito in a Mediterranean Island accounting for imperfect detection
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RESEARCH
Open Access
Modelling the range expansion of the Tiger mosquito in a Mediterranean Island accounting for imperfect detection Giacomo Tavecchia1* , Miguel-Angel Miranda2, David Borrás2, Mikel Bengoa3, Carlos Barceló2, Claudia Paredes-Esquivel2 and Carl Schwarz4
Abstract Backgrounds: Aedes albopictus (Diptera; Culicidae) is a highly invasive mosquito species and a competent vector of several arboviral diseases that have spread rapidly throughout the world. Prevalence and patterns of dispersal of the mosquito are of central importance for an effective control of the species. We used site-occupancy models accounting for false negative detections to estimate the prevalence, the turnover, the movement pattern and the growth rate in the number of sites occupied by the mosquito in 17 localities throughout Mallorca Island. Results: Site-occupancy probability increased from 0.35 in the 2012, year of first reported observation of the species, to 0.89 in 2015. Despite a steady increase in mosquito presence, the extinction probability was generally high indicating a high turnover in the occupied sites. We considered two site-dependent covariates, namely the distance from the point of first observation and the estimated yearly occupancy rate in the neighborhood, as predicted by diffusion models. Results suggested that mosquito distribution during the first year was consistent with what predicted by simple diffusion models, but was not consistent with the diffusion model in subsequent years when it was similar to those expected from leapfrog dispersal events. Conclusions: Assuming a single initial colonization event, the spread of Ae. albopictus in Mallorca followed two distinct phases, an early one consistent with diffusion movements and a second consistent with long distance, ‘leapfrog’, movements. The colonization of the island was fast, with ~90% of the sites estimated to be occupied 3 years after the colonization. The fast spread was likely to have occurred through vectors related to human mobility such as cars or other vehicles. Surveillance and management actions near the introduction point would only be effective during the early steps of the colonization. Keywords: Tiger mosquito, Site-occupancy model, Population dynamics, Invasion, Range expansion
Background Measuring species range expansion and the pattern of dispersal is a central theme in animal ecology and of particular importance in the management or control of invasive species [39]. Most mathematical models for range expansion assume no false negative for detection of a species, that is to say, if a species is present at a given site, it will always be detected [42]. However, cryptic species or species at the initial phase * Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), c. Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles, Spain Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
of the expansion process, might not be detected under a given density threshold [6, 22], which would lead to underestimation of the sp
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