MRV framework and prospective scenarios to monitor and ratchet up Brazilian transport mitigation targets
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MRV framework and prospective scenarios to monitor and ratchet up Brazilian transport mitigation targets George Vasconcelos Goes 1 & Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves 1 & Márcio de Almeida D’Agosto 1 & Emilio Lèbre La Rovere 1 & Renata Albergaria de Mello Bandeira 2 Received: 8 February 2019 / Accepted: 14 June 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Transitioning from a carbon-intensive development path to a low-carbon economy requires understanding of emission sources and its drivers. To achieve Nationally Determined Contribution targets discussed under the Paris Agreement, countries must project emission baselines considering different levels of ambition and sectoral performances and monitor government policies and mitigation actions. This study develops a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) framework based on energy use and carbon emission scenarios for Brazil up to 2030, focusing on transport. Three scenarios are developed based on different political commitments. All scenarios and mitigation actions are discussed under the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change, which is recognized as one of the most important institutional instruments of the National Policy on Climate Change. Results reveal a 41% abatement in CO2e emissions when comparing the most ambitious scenario to the conservative one. MRV framework indicates that Brazil is on track to a low carbon economic transition, although joint action is needed. This is mainly due to the increasing penetration of bioenergy into the transport energy matrix, while electromobility does not expand in Brazil at the pace of major international players such as Europe and China. Special contribution of this paper is on the role of bioenergy in prospective carbon emission scenarios, which is a lack in the literature. Keywords MRV . NDC . Transitioning narratives . Energy efficiency . Prospective scenarios
* George Vasconcelos Goes [email protected]
1
Transportation Engineering Program, Technology Center, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro COPPE/UFRJ, Block H - Room 117, University City, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
2
Military Institute of Engineering, Praça General Tibúrcio 80, Praia Vermelha, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Climatic Change
1 Introduction Establishing Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) was an important step towards the achievement of mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Grassi et al. 2017). Among them, the Brazilian NDC is particularly one of the most ambitious. In comparison to 2005 levels, it aims to reduce 37% of carbon emissions by 2025 and up to 43% by 2030. Hence, adopting ambitious strategies for the development of decarbonization scenarios in Brazil becomes crucial to accomplish such targets. This search for decarbonization scenarios puts the most carbon emitter sectors in the country to face new challenges, which must be recognized and discussed for improving multisectoral planning under the perspective of both public and private stakeholders. In
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