Multivariate statistical analysis of the influence of global threats on the security of countries of the world
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MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL THREATS ON THE SECURITY OF COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD T. N. Pomerantsevaa and A. A. Boldakb
UDC 504.052
Methods of multivariate statistical analysis are applied to the investigation of the influence of global threats on the security of countries and regions of the world. The use of the principal component analysis method made it possible to reveal three latent factors required for the comparative analysis of the difference between countries depending on the level of their vulnerability to and protection from global threats. The method of weighted local correlation is modified, which allows one to analyze the dependence of the level of security of various countries of the world on separate global threats in terms of Minkowsky norm. Keywords: global threat, stable development, Minkowsky norm, correlation analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis. INTRODUCTION This article is a development of the investigations that are presented in [1, 2] and in which the influence of system global conflicts on the stable development of countries and regions of the world in the global context is theoretically substantiated. Based on an analysis of data on global conflicts that have occurred from 705 BC to the present time, the regularity of their occurrences is found in [1]. It is shown that the sequence of life cycles of system global conflicts obeys the law of changing elements of the Fibonacci series and that the intensity of these conflicts dependent on the level of the technological development of a society increases according to the hyperbolic law. Using the revealed regularities, an attempt is made to foresee some next global conflict called the conflict of the XXIth century and its nature and main characteristics such as its duration and main phases of its course and intensity are analyzed. In [2], the collection of ten basic global threats that are fraught with a conflict in the XXIth century is quantitatively presented and the modeling of their influence on the security of countries and regions of the world is performed. These threats are the energy security ES, the balance between the overall consumption and biological efficiency of the Earth ÂB, the inequality of incomes GINI, global diseases GD, children’s mortality CM, corruption susceptibility index CP, access to drinking water WA, global warming GW, degree of state incapacity SF, and vulnerability to natural catastrophes ND. Since the simultaneous estimation of security of some country or other in the context of the ten global threats is rather difficult, we will use methods of multivariate statistical analysis (MSA) in this work to more conveniently and clearly investigate this problem. With the help of these methods, we additionally investigate correlation interrelations between separate threats, reduce variables with many properties to several hidden (latent) factors determining these properties, and clusterize countries according to the extent of influence of global threats on their security
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