NATO, Climate Change, and International Security A Risk Governance A
This book offers a prospective analysis of the anticipated security consequences of climate change in relation to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Using climate and security literature to complement recent foresight and scenario analysis dev
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NATO, Climate Change, and International Security
Tyler H. Lippert
NATO, Climate Change, and International Security A Risk Governance Approach
Tyler H. Lippert, PhD, JD Chicago, USA
ISBN 978-3-030-14559-0 ISBN 978-3-030-14560-6 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14560-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2019932934 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: © Alex Linch shutterstock.com This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1 Introduction 1 2 Literature Review 13 3 Taking Stock of the Situation: NATO 47 4 Methodology and Context 81 5 A Risk Governance Case Study 111 6 Major Findings 185 Appendix A: Empirical Models 219 Appendix B: SFA Report 2013 225
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Appendix C: Evolution and Development of the FFAO Report 229 Bibliography 241 Index 261
1 Introduction
Introduction This book examines the anticipated security consequences of climate change using a risk governance framework from the perspective of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Throughout the past decade, a great deal of effort has been devoted to examining the anticipated consequences of climate change, in particular how it will affect security. Yet, little attention has been devoted to understanding how the role or posture of NATO may need to evolve in response. While NATO isn’t a primary actor with respect to global climate policy, a ripple of consequences is anticipated to wash upon its shores as a result of climate change. More attention to climate is a potentially useful element in anticipating the next crises, many of which could present secu
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