Saving a Million Species Extinction Risk from Climate Change
Saving a Million Species examines the question, how many species will perish as a result of climate change and associated threats? Written by leaders from a range of disciplines, it offers detailed, clear explanations that synthesize the literature and el
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Edited by Lee Hannah
Washington | Covelo | London
Copyright © 2012 Island Press All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 1718 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20009 Island Press is a trademark of The Center for Resource Economics.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Saving a million species : extinction risk from climate change / edited by Lee Hannah. p. cm. ISBN-13: 978-1-59726-569-0 (cloth) ISBN-10: 1-59726-569-1 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-1-59726-570-6 (paper) ISBN-10: 1-59726-570-5 (paper) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Global warming. 3. Extinction (Biology)—Environmental aspects. I. Hannah, Lee Jay. QC902.9.S28 2011 551.6—dc23 2011040327 Printed on recycled, acid-free paper
Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Keywords: Island Press, climate change, extinction, extinction risk, biodiversity, freshwater, marine, biology, coral bleaching, species area relationship, million species, conservation
contents
Foreword
ix
thomas e. lovejoy
PART I. INTRODUCTION
1
Chapter 1
3
Are a Million Species at Risk? Lee Hannah
Chapter 2
First Estimates of Extinction Risk from Climate Change
11
Chris D. Thomas
Chapter 3
Climate Change, Extinction Risk, and Public Policy
29
Jonathan Mawdsley, Guy Midgley, and Lee Hannah
PART II. REFINING FIRST ESTIMATES
39
Chapter 4
41
Refining Risk Estimates Using Models Alison Cameron
Chapter 5
The Use and Misuse of Species-Area Relationships in Predicting Climate-Driven Extinction
73
John Harte and Justin Kitzes
PART III. CURRENT EXTINCTIONS
87
Chapter 6
89
First Extinctions on Land Sarah K. McMenamin and Lee Hannah
Chapter 7
Global Warming and Widespread Coral Mortality: Evidence of First Coral Reef Extinctions
103
Peter W. Glynn
Chapter 8
Extinction Risk at High Latitudes Eric Post and Jedediah Brodie
121
PART IV. EVIDENCE FROM THE PAST
139
Chapter 9
141
Extinctions in Deep Time Peter J. Mayhew
Chapter 10 Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Climate Change during the Paleogene
157
William C. Clyde and Rebecca LeCain
Chapter 11 Quaternary Extinctions and Their Link to Climate Change
179
Barry W. Brook and Anthony D. Barnosky
Chapter 12 Quaternary Tropical Plant Extinction: A Paleoecological Perspective from the Neotropics
199
Mark B. Bush and Nicole A. S. Mosblech
PART V. PREDICTING FUTURE EXTINCTIONS
215
Chapter 13 Every Species Is an Insect (or Nearly So): On Insects, Climate Change, Extinction, and the Biological Unknown
217
Robert R. Dunn and Matthew C. Fitzpatrick
Chapter 14 Extinction Risk from Climate Change in Tropical Forests
239
Yadvinder Malhi
Chapter 15 Coral Reefs, Climate Change, and Mass Extinction
261
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Chapter 16 Extinction Risk in a Changing Ocean
285
Benjamin S. Halpern and Carrie V. Kappel
Chapter 17 Climate Change and Freshwater Fauna Extinction Risk
309
N. LeRoy Poff, Jul
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