Saving a Million Species Extinction Risk from Climate Change

Saving a Million Species examines the question, how many species will perish as a result of climate change and associated threats? Written by leaders from a range of disciplines, it offers detailed, clear explanations that synthesize the literature and el

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Edited by Lee Hannah

Washington | Covelo | London

Copyright © 2012 Island Press All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the publisher: Island Press, 1718 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20009 Island Press is a trademark of The Center for Resource Economics.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Saving a million species : extinction risk from climate change / edited by Lee Hannah. p. cm. ISBN-13: 978-1-59726-569-0 (cloth) ISBN-10: 1-59726-569-1 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-1-59726-570-6 (paper) ISBN-10: 1-59726-570-5 (paper) 1. Climatic changes. 2. Global warming. 3. Extinction (Biology)—Environmental aspects. I. Hannah, Lee Jay. QC902.9.S28 2011 551.6—dc23 2011040327 Printed on recycled, acid-free paper

Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Keywords: Island Press, climate change, extinction, extinction risk, biodiversity, freshwater, marine, biology, coral bleaching, species area relationship, million species, conservation

contents

Foreword

ix

thomas e. lovejoy

PART I. INTRODUCTION

1

Chapter 1

3

Are a Million Species at Risk? Lee Hannah

Chapter 2

First Estimates of Extinction Risk from Climate Change

11

Chris D. Thomas

Chapter 3

Climate Change, Extinction Risk, and Public Policy

29

Jonathan Mawdsley, Guy Midgley, and Lee Hannah

PART II. REFINING FIRST ESTIMATES

39

Chapter 4

41

Refining Risk Estimates Using Models Alison Cameron

Chapter 5

The Use and Misuse of Species-Area Relationships in Predicting Climate-Driven Extinction

73

John Harte and Justin Kitzes

PART III. CURRENT EXTINCTIONS

87

Chapter 6

89

First Extinctions on Land Sarah K. McMenamin and Lee Hannah

Chapter 7

Global Warming and Widespread Coral Mortality: Evidence of First Coral Reef Extinctions

103

Peter W. Glynn

Chapter 8

Extinction Risk at High Latitudes Eric Post and Jedediah Brodie

121

PART IV. EVIDENCE FROM THE PAST

139

Chapter 9

141

Extinctions in Deep Time Peter J. Mayhew

Chapter 10 Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Climate Change during the Paleogene

157

William C. Clyde and Rebecca LeCain

Chapter 11 Quaternary Extinctions and Their Link to Climate Change

179

Barry W. Brook and Anthony D. Barnosky

Chapter 12 Quaternary Tropical Plant Extinction: A Paleoecological Perspective from the Neotropics

199

Mark B. Bush and Nicole A. S. Mosblech

PART V. PREDICTING FUTURE EXTINCTIONS

215

Chapter 13 Every Species Is an Insect (or Nearly So): On Insects, Climate Change, Extinction, and the Biological Unknown

217

Robert R. Dunn and Matthew C. Fitzpatrick

Chapter 14 Extinction Risk from Climate Change in Tropical Forests

239

Yadvinder Malhi

Chapter 15 Coral Reefs, Climate Change, and Mass Extinction

261

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

Chapter 16 Extinction Risk in a Changing Ocean

285

Benjamin S. Halpern and Carrie V. Kappel

Chapter 17 Climate Change and Freshwater Fauna Extinction Risk

309

N. LeRoy Poff, Jul