Natural disaster risk assessment in tourist areas based on multi scenario analysis
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RESEARCH PAPER
Natural disaster risk assessment in tourist areas based on multi scenario analysis Xinliang Ye 1 & Jiahong Wen 2 & Zhongfu Zhu 3 & Ruihong Sun 1 Received: 13 June 2020 / Accepted: 25 August 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract From the practice of tourism industry, many scenic spots emphasize emergency rescue and ignore risk prevention in safety management.From the perspective of research, a large number of literatures focus on the emergency management of scenic spots, and lack the concept and method of systematic risk management. This research puts forward the natural disaster risk assessment method in tourist area by the introduction and development of the concept of scenario analysis technique.This method relies on GIS(Geographic Information System) and RS(Remote Sensing) technology to simulate typical natural disaster risk scenarios in the scenic area in the future, and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of typical hazards and disaster risk scenarios. Further, it classifies tourism resources and tourist facilities, analyze the characteristics of the time and space distribution of tourists and residents in the scenic area, and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of hazard factors and the vulnerability of the scenic area’s bearer; finally, by fitting the risk curve, establish a comprehensive disaster loss model for the scenic area and predict the amount Scenario average annual loss.Taking the Jiuzhaigou Tree Zhengjing Group as an example, simulate the velocity, flow and impact of debris flow caused by six torrential rain scenarios in Jiuzhaigou in 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years, and establish six scenarios of debris flow and trees. The vulnerability of the Zhengjing Group; predict potential losses and casualties in six scenarios; combined with acceptable risks, propose future natural disaster prevention and risk reduction measures for Jiuzhaigou Shuzhengzhai. Keywords Debris flow . Natural disaster . Risk assessment . Multi-scenarios . Tourist areas . Jiuzhai Valley
Introduction The last decade has seen an increasing economic loss caused by natural disasters in China. In 2016, 2630 districts and cities were affected to varying degrees (Ministry of Civil Affairs 2015). Among them, 992 AAA-level and above tourist areas were affected in varying degrees, accounting for 64% of 1541 Communicated by: H. Babaie * Ruihong Sun [email protected] 1
School of management, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, 333 Longteng Road, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
2
School of environmental and geographical sciences, Shanghai Normal University, 100 Guilin Road, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China
3
Jiuzhai Valley Scenic Area Administration, Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, Zhangzha Town, Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China
AAA-level and above tourist areas. Natural disasters have become one of the most important factors constraining sustainable development of tourism in China (Ch
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