Nondestructive Characterization of Materials XI Proceedings of the 1

The papers published in these proceedings represent the latest developments in Nondestructive Characterization of Materials and were presented at the Eleventh International Symposium on Nondestructive Characterization of Materials held in June 24-28, 2002

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THE UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN ONTARIO SERIES IN PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE A SERIES OF BOOKS IN PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE, METHODOLOGY, EPISTEMOLOGY, LOGIC, HISTORY OF SCIENCE AND RELATED FIELDS

Managing Editor ROBERT E. BUTTS

Dept. of Philosophy, University of Western Ontario, Canada Editorial Board University of Western Ontario Queen's College, Oxford WILLIAM DEMOPOULOS, University of Western Ontario WILLIAM HARPER, University of Western Ontario JAAKKO HINTIKKA, Florida State University, Tallahassee CLIFFORD A. HOOKER, University of Newcastle HENRY E. KYBURG, JR., University of Rochester AUSONIO MARRAS, University of Western Ontario JURGEN MITTELSTRASS, Universitiit Konstanz JOHN M. NICHOLAS, University of Western Ontario GLENN A. PEARCE, University of Western Ontario BAS C. VAN FRAASSEN, Princeton University JEFFREY BUB,

L. JONATHAN COHEN,

VOLUME 39

ADVANCES IN THE STATISTICAL SCIENCES Festschrift in Honor of Professor V. M Joshi's 70th Birthday VOLUME VI

ACTUARIAL SCIENCE Edited by

IAN B. MacNEILL and GARY J. UMPHREY Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, The University of Western Ontario

Associate editors: BEDA S. C. CHAN

and SERGE B. PROVOST Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, The University of Western Ontario

D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY A MEMBER OF THE KLUWER

ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP

DORDRECHTjBOSTONjLANCASTERjTOKYO

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Actuarial science. (Advances in the statistical sciences; v. 6) (The University of Western Ontario series in philosophy of science; v. 39) 1. Insurance-Mathematics-Congresses. 2. Actuaries--Congresses. I. MacNeill, Ian B., 1931. II. Umphrey, Gary J., 1953. III. Series. IV. Series: University of Western Ontario series in philosophy of science; v. 39. 86-29678 QA276.A1A39 vol. 6 519.5 s [HG8782] [368' .01] ISBN-13: 978-90-277-2398-7

e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-4796-2

001: 10. 1007/978-94-009-4796-2

Published by D. Reidel Publishing Company, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, Holland. Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Assinippi Park, Norwell, MA 02061, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322,3300 AH Dordrecht, Holland.

All Rights Reserved

© 1987 by D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland Reprint of the original edition 1987 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Contents of the Other Volumes of the Joshi Festschrift.

vii

Preface

xiii

Introduction to Volume VI

xv

JAMES C. HICKMAN Connections Between Graduation and Forecasting

...... 1

JAMES D. BROFFITT Isotonic Bayesian Graduation with an Additive Prior

19

ESTHER PORTNOY Bootstrapping a Graduation

41

HANS U. GERBER Actuarial Applications of Utility Functions

53

N. U. PRABHU