Numerical modelling of land subsidence related to groundwater withdrawal in the Firenze-Prato-Pistoia basin (central Ita
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PAPER
Numerical modelling of land subsidence related to groundwater withdrawal in the Firenze-Prato-Pistoia basin (central Italy) Mattia Ceccatelli 1 & Matteo Del Soldato 1 & Lorenzo Solari 2 & Riccardo Fanti 1 & Gaddo Mannori 3 & Fabio Castelli 4 Received: 8 April 2020 / Accepted: 9 October 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract The Tuscany region of Italy is widely affected by subsidence, landslides and floods, which severely impact buildings and infrastructure. In particular, Firenze-Prato-Pistoia basin has a long experience of ground deformation related to groundwater withdrawal. European remote-sensing satellite (ERS) data collected since 1992 have revealed the presence of several subsiding areas in the basin such as the south-eastern portion of the city of Pistoia. Sentinel-1 persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) measurements for 2015–2018 confirmed the long-term subsidence of this area, associated with intense horticulture (plant nurseries). At the same time, Sentinel-1 data revealed the unexpected movement of Pistoia historic center, which has always been considered stable in the past. To identify the complex relationship between aquifer conditions and ground displacement, a hydrogeologic model of the Pistoia aquifers was developed, applying an integrated modelling procedure. Hydrodynamicparameter distributions, calibrated and validated by means of Sentinel-1 PSI measurements, suggest that subsidence in Pistoia area is probably related with the combined impacts of groundwater extraction and highly compressible aquitards. To evaluate the potential evolution of ground displacement, numerical simulations were extended until 2050, using regional and global climate model data, analyzing three different pumping-rate scenarios. This led to the development of several subsidence hazard maps of the city of Pistoia that display the influence of groundwater extraction in controlling land subsidence in the area. This study emphasizes the importance of developing proper groundwater management policies, especially in alluvial aquifers made of fine compressible sediments, in order to sustainably utilize underground freshwater resources and to avoid related side effects. Keywords Subsidence . Numerical modelling . Groundwater management . Remote sensing . Italy
Introduction Groundwater is a fundamental resource for freshwater supplies in many urban and rural areas all over the world, as it Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02255-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Mattia Ceccatelli [email protected] 1
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Via G. La Pira 4, 50121 Florence, Italy
2
Centre Tecnològic de Telecomunicacions de Catalunya (CTTC), Division of Geomatics, Av. Gauss, 7, 08860 Castelldefels, Spain
3
Largo San Biagio 149, 51100 Pistoia, Italy
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Florence , Via di Santa Marta, 3 50139 Florence, Italy
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