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TOPICS IN SAFETY, RISK, RELIABILITY AND QUALITY VOLUME 12

Editor Adrian V. Gheorghe Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, Switzerland Editorial Advisory Board P. Sander, Technical University of Eindhoven, The Netherlands D.C. Barrie, Lakehead University, Ontario, Canada R. Leitch, Royal Military College of Science (Cranfield), Shriverham, U.K. Aims and Scope. Fundamental questions which are being asked these days of all products, processes and services with ever increasing frequency are: What is the risk? How safe is it? How reliable is it? How good is the quality? How much does it cost? This is particularly true as the government, industry, public, customers and society become increasingly informed and articulate. In practice none of the three topics can be considered in isolation as they all interact and interrelate in very complex and subtle ways and require a range of disciplines for their description and application; they encompass the social, engineering and physical sciences and quantitative disciplines including mathematics, probability theory and statistics. The major objective of the series is to provide series of authoritative texts suitable for academic taught courses, reference purposes, post graduate and other research and practitioners generally working or strongly associated with areas such as: Safety Assessment and Management Emergency Planning Risk Management Reliability Analysis and Assessment Vulnerability Assessment and Management Quality Assurance and Management Special emphasis is placed on texts with regard to readability, relevance, clarity, applicability, rigour and generally sound quantitative content.

The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.

Oil and Security A World Beyond Petroleum Towards the Demise of the Unreliable and Risk Prone Use of Solid and Liquid Fossil Fuel and the Development of a Sustainable World Energy System which Assures Environmental Quality and an Equitable Socio-economic System

Ernst Gabriel Frankel Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA

A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN 978-1-4020-6381-7 (HB) ISBN 978-1-4020-6382-4 (e-book) Published by Springer, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands. www.springer.com

Printed on acid-free paper

All Rights Reserved © 2007 Springer No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Figures

vii

List of Tables

ix

Abbreviations and Acronyms

xi

World Energy Assessment Overview

xiii

Preamble

xv

Preface

xxi

1. Introduction 1.1. Cradle of the Petroleum Age 1.2. Future Energy Challenges 1.3. Assuring Energy Supply Reliab