On the mathematical modelling and data assimilation for air pollution assessment in the Tropical Andes
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URBAN AIR QUALITY, CLIMATE AND POLLUTION: FROM MEASUREMENT TO MODELING APPLICATIONS
On the mathematical modelling and data assimilation for air pollution assessment in the Tropical Andes 2 · Nicolas ˜ ´ Pinel3 O. L. Quintero Montoya1 · El´ıas D. Nino-Ruiz
Received: 3 October 2019 / Accepted: 27 February 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Air pollution assessment in the Tropical Andes requires a multidisciplinary approach. This can be supported from the understanding of the underlying biological dynamics and atmospheric behavior, to the mathematical approach for the proper use of all available information. This review paper touches on several aspects in which mathematical models can help to solve challenging problems regarding air pollution in reviewing the state-of-the-art at the global level and assessing the corresponding state of development as applied to the Tropical Andes. We address the complexities and challenges that modelling atmospheric dynamics in a mega-diverse region with abrupt topography entails. Understanding the relevance of monitoring and facing the problems of data scarcity, we call attention to the usefulness of data assimilation for uncertainty reduction, and how these techniques could help tackle the scarcity of regional monitoring networks to accelerate the implementation and development of modelling systems for air quality in the Tropical Andes. Finally, we suggest a cyberphysical framework for decision-making processes based on the data assimilation of chemical transport models, the forecast of scenarios, and their use in regulation and policy making. Keywords Computer modelling and simulation · Data assimilation and data analysis · Biodiversity · Conservation
Introduction The Tropical Andean countries (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia) face deteriorating air quality.
Responsible Editor: Marcus Schulz O. L. Quintero Montoya
[email protected] El´ıas D. Ni˜no-Ruiz [email protected] Nicol´as Pinel [email protected] 1
Mathematical Modelling Research Group, Universidad EAFIT, Medell´ın, Colombia
2
Computer Science Department, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia
3
Biodiversity Evolution and Conservation, Universidad EAFIT, Medell´ın, Colombia
Their two megacities (Bogot´a and Lima), and their corresponding countries, rank in the top 50 most polluted capital cities and countries of the world (Air Quality Index 2018), respectively. Most of the large cities in the region exceed the annual average PM2.5 World Health Organization guideline of 10 μg/m3 (WHO 2016). The peculiar topography (such as abrupt elevation changes, with narrow inter-mountain valleys over 1000 m deep, and transitions from sea level to over 5000 m in less than 200 km) and environmental conditions of the region (such as the bi-annual transit of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, and the irregular behavior of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation) generate atmospheric conditions that impoverish air quality. Growing urban populations across the re
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