Assessing the Effectiveness of TRIGRS for Predicting Unstable Areas in a Tropical Mountain Basin (Colombian Andes)
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessing the Effectiveness of TRIGRS for Predicting Unstable Areas in a Tropical Mountain Basin (Colombian Andes) Roberto J. Marin
. Edwin F. Garcı´a
. Edier Aristiza´bal
Received: 27 April 2020 / Accepted: 31 October 2020 Ó Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Some physically based landslide models analyse pore water pressure changes due to rainfall infiltration and its effects on slope stability. The physically-based model TRIGRS has been successfully used in rainfall-induced shallow landslide assessments in different studies around the world; nevertheless, evaluating its performance in tropical mountain terrains, such as the Colombian Andes, is necessary. In this study, the TRIGRS model was applied to the La Arenosa basin (San Carlos, Colombia) and ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to assess its effectiveness (performance) at predicting areas susceptible to shallow landslides in this tropical mountainous area. The results were compared with those obtained using the
SHIA_Landslide (Simulacio´n Hidrolo´gica Abierta, or SHIA, in Spanish) and SHALSTAB models in the same case study. The three models performed well, especially TRIGRS and SHIA_Landslide. The predictive results using TRIGRS were thoroughly analysed, describing the effect of the slope angle and its relationship with the estimated soil depth on the variation of the pressure head and the factor of safety (FS) during the simulated rainfall event. The high dependence of FS on soil thickness demonstrated that defining this variable must be carefully accomplished. The results suggest that TRIGRS can be a valuable tool in tropical mountain terrains, such as the Colombian Andes basins, and it can be useful despite the lack of data and the high parameter uncertainty that is common in many study areas.
R. J. Marin (&) Landslide Scientific Assessment (LandScient), Medellı´n, Colombia e-mail: [email protected]
Keywords Shallow landslides Infiltration ROC analysis Pore pressure Slope stability
R. J. Marin E. F. Garcı´a Facultad de Ingenierı´a, Escuela Ambiental, Grupo de Investigacio´n en Infraestructura (GII), Universidad de Antioquia (UdeA), Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellı´n, Colombia e-mail: [email protected] E. Aristiza´bal Departamento de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellı´n, Carrera 80 No 65-223, Medellı´n, Colombia e-mail: [email protected]
1 Introduction Landslides triggered by rainfall cause a significant number of casualties and economic losses around the world (Fustos et al. 2020; Kirschbaum et al. 2010; Piciullo et al. 2018). According to Froude and Petley (2018), between 2004 and 2016, 4,862 fatal nonseismic landslides occurred worldwide, causing a total
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of 55,997 fatalities and 79% of these landslides were triggered by rainfall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, Sepu´lveda and Petley (2015) found that 11,631 people lost their lives in 611 fatal landslides t
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