On the selection of GMPEs for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source
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On the selection of GMPEs for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source Radu Vacareanu · Florin Pavel · Alexandru Aldea
Received: 25 January 2013 / Accepted: 3 September 2013 / Published online: 15 September 2013 © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract The Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is characterized by large magnitude (MW ≥ 7) intermediate-depth earthquakes that occur two or three times during a century on average. In this study several procedures are used to grade four candidate ground motion prediction equations proposed for Vrancea source in the SHARE project. In the work of Delavaud et al. (J Seismol 16(3):451–473, 2012) four ground motion prediction models developed for subduction zones (Zhao et al. in Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006; Atkinson and Boore in Bull Seism Soc Am 93(4):1703–1729, 2003; Youngs et al. in Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997; Lin and Lee in Bull Seism Soc Am 98(1):220–240, 2008) are suggested as suitable for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source. The paper presents the appropriateness analysis of the four suggested ground motion prediction equations done using a dataset of 109 triaxial accelerograms recorded during seven Vrancea seismic events with moment magnitude MW between 5.4 and 7.4, occurred in the past 35 years. The strong ground motions were recorded in Romania, as well as in Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Serbia. Based on the ground motion dataset several goodness-of-fit measures are used in order to quantify how well the selected models match with the recorded data. The compatibility of the four ground motion prediction models with respect to magnitude scaling and distance scaling implied by strong ground motion dataset is investigated as well. The analyses show that the Youngs et al. (Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997) and Zhao et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006) ground motion prediction models have a better fit with the data and can be candidate models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.
R. Vacareanu · F. Pavel (B) · A. Aldea Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest, Bd. Lacul Tei no. 122-124, Sector 2, 020396 Bucharest, Romania e-mail: [email protected] R. Vacareanu e-mail: [email protected] A. Aldea e-mail: [email protected]
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Bull Earthquake Eng (2013) 11:1867–1884
Keywords Ground motion prediction equation · Peak ground acceleration · Acceleration response spectra · Residual · Likelihood
1 Introduction The Vrancea seismic source, located at the Carpathian Mountains bending (Fig. 1) is a source of subcrustal seismic activity (hypocentral depths between 60 and 170 km), which affects more than 2/3 of the territory of Romania and an important part of the territories of Republic of Moldova, Bulgaria and Ukraine (Lungu et al. 2000). According to Marmureanu et al. (2010), the most frequent focal depths are in the range 90–120 km (major earthquakes in 1738, 1838, 1977) or in the range 130–150 km (major earthquakes in 1802, 1940, 1986). The Vrancea source epicentral area is confined to a rectangle of roughly 40 ×
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