Seismic source modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangladesh
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Seismic source modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangladesh Md. Zillur Rahman1,2 · Sumi Siddiqua1 · A. S. M. Maksud Kamal2 Received: 7 March 2019 / Accepted: 29 May 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for Bangladesh using background seismicity, crustal fault, and subduction zone source models. The latest ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) that are developed using global data sets have been used to estimate ground motion. The uncertainties in seismic sources and GMPEs to estimate ground motion are accounted using the logic tree approach. The activity rates of the background and regional seismicity sources are estimated using a declustered and complete catalog of the study regions. The activity rates of the crustal fault and subduction zone sources are estimated from the geodetic strain rates using the well-accepted relationships. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at spectral periods of 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, and 10.0 s have been estimated at a grid size of 0.250 at the bedrock ground condition. The PGA and SA maps of various spectral periods have been prepared for Bangladesh for both 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. These seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk management of Bangladesh. Keywords Seismic source model · Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) · Peak ground acceleration (PGA) · Spectral acceleration (SA) · Seismic hazard map · Bangladesh
1 Introduction The probabilistic method was originally introduced by Cornell (1968) and Esteva (1969) for seismic hazard analysis. In this method, all potential sources of earthquakes, their activity rates, and their distances from a site are used to estimate the ground motion parameters at the site. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the location, size, occurrence, and ground motion of earthquakes (Kramer 1996). The PSHA is widely used to estimate the ground motion parameters and prepare national seismic hazard maps (Petersen et al. 2014; Adams et al. 2015). The seismic hazard * Sumi Siddiqua [email protected] 1
School of Engineering, University of British Columbia, Okanagan Campus, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, Canada
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Department of Disaster Science and Management, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
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Natural Hazards
maps are generally prepared using the ground motion parameters at a reference ground condition where the average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30) is 760 m/s. The results of the PSHA are used to design earthquake resilient structures, develop long-term regional plans for emergency response and recovery, and prepare financial plan for earthquake losses (McGuire 2001). Bangladesh and surrounding regions are seismically active due to their locations close to the convergent plate boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates (Morino et al. 2011, 2014; Steckler et al. 2016). T
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